Finland as the North Gate of NATO in Case of War with Russia: Is Finland Safer Under NATO?
https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks/05/05/2022/2020
Published Date: 05 May 2022
Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
Comments on Contemporary Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks-all
Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
Researcher in International Relations with a Focus on Security, Political and Economic Risks for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and International Trade
05 May 2022 at 20:20. I am sorry that I am going to spoil the ‘Joining NATO Party’, but it will deteriorate the security of Finland and Sweden instead of maximising it. Why? Because of several reasons. First, Finland is going to suffer from joining NATO more than Sweden because Finland has a border with Russia. Finland has a small population (5.5 million) and a small army, so under the status of neutrality, Finland is not a threat to Russia, which paradoxically increases the security of Finland and not the opposite. However, if Finland joins NATO, then Russia will see Finland as the 'North Gate' for NATO invasion/attacks against Russia, so Russia will start to treat Finland as an enemy, resulting in a clash between Finland and Russia regarding various aspects, which will minimise the political stability and security of Finland. Second, let's assume that suddenly a world war will start between the West and the East, then all West countries, as well as all East countries, will be united together to fight the war, regardless of whether a West country is a member of NATO or not, or if an East country is a member of the Russian military alliance or not. This happened in WWI and WWII, and it will also occur in WWIII. Third, Sweden has less risk of joining NATO compared to Finland, yet Sweden cleverly kept neutrality even in WWII until today, which allows Sweden to play a significant role in the mediation of conflicts. The world needs at least one adult in the war kindergarten, so it's important that Sweden will continue to serve as the adult one. However, if Sweden joins NATO, then Sweden will lose its special role in the world order, yet without significant change on the military front. Hence, my analysis indicates that joining NATO will be a huge mistake for Finland, while a pity for Sweden.
13 May 2022 at 19:38. As I predicted, Russia has acted very fast against Finland amid Finland's decision to join NATO, namely Russia cut its electricity to Finland, with the likelihood that it will also soon include cutting the Russian gas to Finland. Still, my speculation is that Russia will do more punishment acts against Finland. Finland has a very long border with Russia, which I call the North Gate to Russia, so Russia is very sensitive to any military change on the Finland side, like the Winter War, in which Russia attacked Finland immediately at the start of WWII to secure the North Gate to Russia. The Winter War ended relatively fast, after 105 days, following the Moscow Peace Treaty, in which Finland ceded two territories to Russia, which is applied until today. Hence, if a war starts between Russia and NATO when Finland is a member of NATO, then my speculation is that Finland will be the battleground of this war with a risk of massive devastation on the Finland side. If I look at the Winter War, then there even exists a risk that the war between Russia and NATO will start in Finland because of the long border between Finland and Russia.
Finland in World War II - Wikipedia; Winter War - Wikipedia; Moscow Peace Treaty - Wikipedia; Continuation War - Wikipedia; Moscow Armistice - Wikipedia; Lapland War - Wikipedia
The Unknown Soldier (English Subtitle) - YouTube Continuation War 1941-1944 (Finland and Nazis Germany against USSR)
