Identify Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

Focusing on the Main News From around the Globe to Identify Various Risks.

Focusing on Declarations of World Leaders to Identify Risks of Regime Transformation and International Conflicts

Focusing on the Global Economy to Identify the Risk of ‘Domino Effect of Small Village’ - Globalization Transformed the World into 'Small Village', which Increases the Risks for Global Crises

Focusing on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), International Trade (e.g. Export/Import), and Mergers & Acquisitions (M&As) Activity Worldwide to Identify Risks of International Business Activity in terms of Sanctions-Wars, Trade-Wars, Restrictions & Barriers, Free Trade Agreements, Trade Alliances, Cultural Distance, and FDI Impact on Labour Markets

Focusing on Business Activity Worldwide to Identify Risks of Reduction in Revenue, Profits, and Labour Productivity alongside Management Failure

Focusing on Central Banks Worldwide to Identify Risks of Changes in the Monetary Policy, Changes in Interest Rates, Buying or Selling of Foreign Currency, Handling the Bank Reserves, and more, which can lead to a Financial Crisis

Focusing on Stock Markets Worldwide to Identify Risks of Volatility in Stock Exchanges that can lead to a Fall in Stock Markets, resulting in Financial and Economic Crises - Making Profits on Stock Exchanges is based on ‘Art Manipulation’, rather than on Success in Running Firms

Focusing on Governments Worldwide to Identify Risks of Regime Transformation and Conflicts with other Countries - Looking at Various Types of Administrations: Full Democracy, Half Democracy, Communism, Absolute Monarchy, Religious Regime, and Military Regime

Focusing on Foreign Policy Worldwide to Identify Risks that Evolve From the Race between Superpowers, either Current ones or New ones, to Secure their Positions as Superpowers by Preserving Allies and Adding New Allies: Looking at the Dynamic of Global Order via Cooperative Games versus Non-Cooperative Games

Focusing on Press Releases and Announcements by Ministries of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Worldwide to Identify Diplomacy Crises and Other Crises at the Country Level, still, Caution is Needed to Distinguish between Facts and Propaganda

Focusing on the United Nations to Identify Risks that Evolve From the Inability of the UN General Assembly to Get Binding Decisions, regardless of the Problematic Veto Right

Focusing on the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to Identify if the UNSC serves as a Game Changer or as a Rubber Stamp in the Current Troublesome Era characterized by Escalation of Ongoing Conflicts and Wars in the World

Focusing on NATO to Identify Risks of Military Conflicts between NATO and NATO’s Rivals, as well as the Readiness of NATO for Wars.

Focusing on Conflicts and Wars Worldwide to Identify Risks of Escalation in Conflicts and Wars that can Evolve From Biliteral War to Regional Wars, or even From Regional War to WWIII

Focusing on Terrorism Worldwide to Identify Risks of Global Terror Groups (e.g. Islamic State), Local Terror Groups that Act in a Certain Country to Undermine its Regine or to topple it, and Military Resistance Groups under Occupation that use Terror Tactics

Focusing on the Defense Industry Worldwide to Identify Risks of Quality Expensive Weapons versus Quantity Cheap Weapons that Can Be a Game Changer in Wars, as well as Risks of Dependency on Imported Weapons versus Local Production of Weapons

Focusing on Military Forces Worldwide to Identify Risks of Unreadiness of Armies to Wars in terms of Active Reserve Personnel, Weapons, Drills, Army Intelligence, and Military Tactics - Best Weapons are not Enough to Win a Battle, but if the Army has an Appropriate Force Structure and Suitable Military Strategy

Focusing on Intelligence, Espionage and Spying Worldwide to Identify Risks of Intelligence Failures, Deterioration of Diplomatic Relations due to Espionage, Espionage in Enemy Countries, and Undermining Freedom due to Spying Activity of a Country against its Citizens

Focusing on Artificial Intelligence to Identify Risks that Evolve From the Stress between Freedom and Protection that Artificial Intelligence Created

Focusing on Oil and Gas Markets Worldwide to Identify Risks of Sanctions on the Export or Import of Oil and Gas, ‘Soft Embargo’ on Oil and Gas, Volatility in Oil and Gas Prices, Reduction in the Oil and Gas Proved Reserves, and even Regional and Global Conflicts related to Oil and Gas

Focusing on Green Energy to Identify if Cheap Alternatives of Green Energy were developed to Reduce Global Warming and as Alternatives to the Limited Traditional Energy Resources

Focusing on Labour Markets and Industrial Relations Worldwide to Identify Risks of Unemployment, Elimination of Jobs due to Relocation of Jobs and Technological Change, Strikes led by Labour Unions, Low Labour Productivity and more, which can Undermine the Economic and Political Stability, and even can Lead to Increase of Terrorism in the Case of Youth Unemployment

Focusing on Technology and Science to Identify Risky Inventions and Risky R&D - Looking for Inventions and Innovative R&D that we Never had Before versus New Versions of Products

Focusing on Space to Identify the Risks of Space Failures and the Risks of the Space Race of Satellites, Spaceships and Space Rockets

Focusing on Earth to Identify the Risks of Natural Disasters and Climate Change on Earth - Are Natural Disasters and Climate Change Inherent on Earth as Part of the Nature of Earth and the Repeated Cycles of Climate Change on Earth, while How Many Natural Disasters and Climate Change Have Occurred Due to ‘Human Handmade’?

Focusing on Evolution versus Extinction on Earth by Looking at Evidence of Archaeology, Fossils and Remains on Earth to Identify Current Risks that may Related to Occurrences from the Past

Focusing on Religion Conflicts to Identify Risks that Evolve From Conflicts between Different Religions and among Religious Groups from the same Religion

Focusing on National Cultural Distance to Identify Risks of Differences in National Culture - Each Nation has a Unique Culture that Evolved from its History, which Impacts the National Culture

Focusing on the USA and Canada to Identify How the Two Big NATO Allied From North-America are Impact Europe and the Global Order

Focusing on the USA's Internal Political Fight to Identify How the Political Fight between Democrats versus Republicans Impacts the Foreign Policy of the USA

Focusing on Latin America to Identify How the ‘Backyard of the USA’ is Responded to the Trying of the Far Superpowers, Russia and China, to Put a Footprint in the Region

Focusing on East-South Asia to Identify Risks that Evolve From the Ongoing Conflict in the Region between USA Allies and China and its Allies

Focusing on China to Identify the Change in the Global Order following the Economic and Political Expansion of China Worldwide

Focusing on Taiwan to Identify the Risk of the Escalation of the Clash between China and Taiwan and its West Allies about One China versus Independent Taiwan

Focusing on North Korea to Identify Risks that Evolve From North Korea’s Nuclear Tests and Nuclear Program, which Run without any Inspection by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The Nuclear Tests Increase the Risks of Earthquakes in the Vulnerable Nature Region, while the Nuclear Program alongside the Long-range Missiles Program Increase the Risk of Nuclear World War in the Case of Military Confrontation between North Korea and its Rivals

Focusing on Japan to Identify Risks that Evolve From the Escalation of the Aging Problem alongside the Reduction in Marriage and Fertility Rate, resulting in a Reduction in the Absolute Number of the Japanese Population, which has led to ‘Ghost Towns’ in Japan. Looking at Japan in the wake of Political Assassinations and the Feminism Upheaval that Transform the Japanese Political Order and its National Culture

Focusing on Central Asia to Identify the Progress of the Region and the Role of the ‘Silk Road’ in the 21st Century

Focusing on Russia to Identify the Change in the Global Order and Geopolitics amid the Strategic and Tactic Moves of Putin

Focusing on the Middle East to Identify Risks in the Region that is Characterised in Political Instability and Wars

Focusing on Saudi Arabia to Identify Risks that Evolve From the Transformation of Saudi Arabia in terms of Modernization, Removal of Restrictions on Women, Economic Sectoral Shifts, Internal Reforms, and Geopolitical Shift under the Young Crown Prince and PM of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud (MBS). Looking at Saudi Arabia as a Key Player in the Muslim World

Focusing on Egypt to Identify Risks that Evolve From the Formal Moving of Egypt from the ‘USA Coalition’ to the ‘Russia-China Coalition’ amid the joining of Egypt to BRICS and its Bank, the New Development Bank (NDB) that both of them aim to challenge the dominance of USA, as well as the Risk that Evolve from the ‘Arab Street’ in Egypt and Other Arab Countries that Oppose the Peace Agreement with Israel, especially during a military Confrontation between Israel and Palestine.

Focusing on Iran to Identify Risks that Evolve From the Sanctions against Iran, the Deadlock of Reviving the Nuclear Deal, and the New Geopolitics Position of Iran as a Strategic Clash Point between West and East Following the Joining of Iran as a New Member of BRICS Plus and SCO alongside its New Position as a Strategic Military Ally of Russia and China

Focusing on Iraq to Identify Risks that Evolve From the Stress in Iraq between Being an Ally of the USA in relation to the Elimination of the Islamic State versus the Hard Opposition of Iraq against Israel-the Loyal Ally of the USA amid the Israeli Occupation of Palestine. Iraq like its Ally Iran Never Recognized Israel as a Legitimate State, and Iraq even participated in several wars against Israel.

The failure of the unification of Yemen has led de-facto to the reverse status of Yemen before 1990 in a way that Yemen has de-facto two countries: South Yemen (Aden) and North Yemen (Sanaa). This list focus on South Yemen (Aden) that formally represents Yemen at the international bodies, such as UN, still, keep in mind, that the Yemani Aden government does not represent the political views of North Yemen (Sanaa).

Focusing on Israel to Identify the Risk of Escalation of the Long Conflict between Israel and Arab/Muslim Countries amid the Location of Israel in the ‘Middle of the Arab Sea’ that has deteriorated due to the Israeli Occupation of Palestine and Other Arab Territories, which can Flame All-Out War in the Middle East and even beyond the Region

Focusing on Palestine to Identify Risks that Evolve From the Fight of Palestine to End the Israeli Occupation and Become an Independent State as a Full UN Member

Focusing on Jordan to Identify Risks that Evolve From the Resistance of the ‘Arab Street’ in Jordan toward the Peace Agreement with Israel amid the Israeli Occupation of Palestine that Escalated amid the Hamas-Israel War, which raises Risk of Internal Instability in Jordan, and even the Risk of Military Participate and Assistance by Jordanians in the Military Campaign against Israel and its Allies

Focusing on Syria to Identify Risks that evolve From the Ongoing Civil War in Syria that includes the Fight against the Islamic State, as well as From the Long Conflict between Syria and Israel amid the Golan Heights Occupied by Israel. The Change in the Global Order under the Patron Russia and the Loyal Ally Iran allows the Come-Back of Syria as a Legitimate Player and as a Member of the Arab League

Focusing on Lebanon to Identify Risks that Evolve From the Ongoing Political and Economic Crisis in Lebanon under the Increase of the political power of Hezbollah, which has Escalated the Ongoing Conflict between Lebanon and Israel, especially after the Entry of Hezbollah into the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict that includes Military participation of Hezbollah in the Israel-Hamas War

The failure of the unification of Yemen has led de-facto to the reverse status of Yemen before 1990 in a way that Yemen has de-facto two countries: South Yemen (Aden) and North Yemen (Sanaa). This list Focusing on North Yemen (Sanaa) that controlled by the Houthis to Identify the Risks that Evolve From the Entry of the Houthi into the Israel-Palestine Conflict via Fighting in the Red Sea against the West Coalition, which Increases the Risk for Disruption of the Sea Routh via the Red Sea and Suez Canal

Focusing on Africa to Identify the Progress of Africa's unification, as well as the Regime Transformation in Africa via Democratic Elections versus Coups and Political Assassinations

Focusing on Sudan to Identify Risks that Evolve From the Third Civil War in Sudan, which has led to the Humanitarian Crisis due to Food Insecurity

Focusing on Europe to Identify Risks that Evolve From the Clash between West/NATO/EU Countries and East Countries

Focusing on Switzerland to Identify Risks under the Uncharted Water amid the Merger between UBS and Credit Suisse to prevent the collapse of Credit Suisse, as well as amid the abandonment of the Neutrality Policy by the Swiss Government Following the Decision to Join the Sanctions against Russia

Focusing on Ukraine to Identify Risks that Evolve From the Ongoing War Between Russia and Ukraine in terms of Reduction in Population, Negative Effects on the Economy and the Future of Ukraine Following the War Destruction, and even the Risk for WWIII if Military Confrontation will start between NATO and Russia

Focusing on the EU to Identify if the EU become a Bloc-Superpower, while How the Sanctions against Russia Impact the Political and Economic Power of the EU

Focusing on Germany to Identify Risks that Evolve From its Present and its Past. Germany is a Prominent Country in the EU, yet highly vulnerable to Sanctions against Russia, while Germany is still struggling to Eliminate the Neo Nazism Ideology in Germany, which has the Risk for Further Expansion to Other Countries

Focusing on the Oceania Region to Identify the Scope of the Tension between West Countries and East Countries in the Region

Focusing on Antarctica to Identify the Impact of Global Warming on Melting Ice in Antarctica, resulting in Raising Sea Levels on Earth, and If Antarctica Can Become a Continent for Human Settlements in the Future