Looking at news from around the world to identify various risks, but we should keep in mind that news includes Facts, Analysis, Assumptions, Opinions, Rumours, and even Propaganda, so we should distinguish between them.

Looking at declarations of world leaders to identify risks of regime transformation and international conflicts and even wars, yet we should keep in mind that populism and propaganda may influence what world leaders tell us, but equally important is what they do not tell us.

Looking at various types of Governments - Full Democracy, Half Democracy, Communism, Absolute Monarchy, Religious Regime, and Military Regime - to identify risks of regime transformation and how the government handles bureaucracy, transparency, foreign policy, defence, FDI and international trade, sanctions, regulation, social policy, employment, productivity, corruption, justice, elections, protests, human rights, trade unions, strikes, and civil rights. 

Looking at press releases and announcements by Ministries of Foreign Affairs (MFA) worldwide to identify risks of diplomacy crises and international conflicts, yet caution is needed to distinguish between facts and propaganda. Press releases by the MFA give a good indication about the geopolitical position of the country and in particular who are the allies and rivals of the country.

Looking at Foreign Policy worldwide to identify risks that evolve from the race between superpowers or between coalitions or between multilateral alliances, a race that aims to preserve or secure political position and economic position at the global level, including preserving allies while competing for new allies that currently may be the allies of the rivals. Looking at the dynamic of Global Order via the Game Theory: Cooperative Games versus Non-Cooperative Games.

Looking at the Global Economy to identify Risks of ‘Domino Effect of Small Village’. Globalization Transformed the World into a 'Small Village', which increases the risks for global financial crises, especially under Sanctions-War and Trade-War, yet the vulnerability of the pension and insurance firms due to the long-term pension in the Aging era and the unprecedented natural disaster claims in the global warming era may even make it worse.

Looking at Central Banks from around the world to identify risks that may evolve from the way that the Central Bank handels the monetary policy. The independence of the central bank is particularly evident in interest rate changes, which become a source of tension between governments and central banks.

Looking at Stock Markets from around the world to identify risks of volatility in stock exchanges that can lead to a crash in stock markets, which may result in financial and economic crises. Making profits on stock exchanges is based on ‘Art Manipulation’, rather than on successful management, as in the case of running profitable firms, so the value of a stock is unnecessarily related to the firm's performance, especially in a rally stock exchange. 

Looking at national Labour Markets from around the world to identify risks of Unemployment, Employment Shift, Lower Labour Productivity, and Elimination of Jobs due to Relocation of Jobs and Technological Change. Labour Market Regulation increases costs but at the same time increases productivity and quality. Retirement Age in the Aging era may have a significant impact on Unemployment, while Job Security is critical for Economic Prosperity. Deterioration in Industrial Relations may negatively affect the economic and political stability.

Looking at Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and International Trade (e.g. Export/Import) worldwide from the Macro Perspective (Country Level) to identify risks of failures in how the Governments handle the Trade Policy (e.g., import tariffs), encouragement of FDI Inward, promotion and facilitation of FDI Outward, Free Trade Agreements, Multilateral Trade Alliances, Restrictions, FDI Entry Barriers, Antitrust policy towards Mergers & Acquisitions (M&As), Trade-Wars, Sanctions-Wars, and Arms Embargo. 

Looking at international business activity worldwide from the Micro Perspective (Firm Level) to identify risks of failures in how the Multinational Enterprises (MNE) handle Strategic Risks, Management Risks, FDI Location Choice, and Firm Performances in terms of revenue, profits, and labour productivity under Cultural Differences, Legal Differences, and Industrial Relations Differences.   

Looking at Conflicts and Wars worldwide to identify risks of long-term wars, regional wars, and even world war III. The change in the global order in which the Dual-Superpowers of Russia and China challenge the hegemony of the USA makes the USA under Trump even more dangerous towards wars, especially due to the economic weakening of the USA compared to the past. Empires rise and fall, but the fall phase can be even more dictatorial when the Empire fights against the fall, so Trump’s Military Imperialism and Mercantilism may trigger more wars worldwide in trying to prevent the fall of the USA empire.

Looking at Terrorism worldwide to identify risks of Global Terror Groups that act in various countries (e.g., Islamic State) versus Local Terror Groups or Lone-Wolf Terrorists that act in a certain country, yet we should also look at countries that act as a Terror-State by using Terror Methodes against rival countries or against civilians under occupation, either Formally like the State of Israel against Palestinians, or Informally like the Israeli settlers in the West Bank. Importantly, we should distinguish between Terror Groups and Military Resistance Groups under occupation (e.g., Hamas) that have the legitimacy to resist the occupier if the occupation violates the International Law, so the Military Resistance Groups in WWII (e.g., in Norway and France) against the occupier, the Nazis, should give us good examples of who are Military Resistance Groups.

Looking at Intelligence and Espionage activity worldwide to identify risks of Intelligence failures and Espionage failures. We should distinguish between Foreign Spies that are sent to rival countries to collect Secret Information versus Traitorous Spies that betrayed their own country by giving Secret Information to rival countries, yet we have today also Cyber Espionage. Although the countless data sources today allow to carry out Open Intelligence via open sources, but it cannot be considered as Espionage, yet it challenges the concept of Secret Information. Traditionally, Intelligence Agencies mainly focus on Espionage, but today some Intelligence Agencies act more as ‘Terror-State Agencies’ and even as a ‘Coup Force’ to topple rival leaders.

Looking at Armed Forces Worldwide to identify risks of readiness for wars, appropriate Force Structure, Foreign Military Presence in Host Countries, and the holding of far-distant Colonies. Best Weapons and Military Capabilities are not enough to win a war, but if an Army has the appropriate Army Size, Force Structure, Military Strategy, and Military Tactics, along with competent Military Espionage, yet the Area Size can be a critical factor, and even Energy Security and Food Security, especially in Blockades or long wars. Bilateral Military Defence Treaties (BMDT) and Multilateral Military Defence Treaties (MMDT) with a 'Clear Commitment to Defend in the Case of an Attack' can give a Military Backup for a country, but at the same time, pose a risk of being drawn into others’ wars.

Looking at Defense Industry worldwide to identify risks of ‘Quality Expensive Weapons’ because ‘Quantity Cheap Weapons’ can be a Game Changer in wars, espaically in the case of ‘Quantity-Quality Cheap Weapons’, such as the Defense Industries from Iran and North Yemen (Sanaa), which have succeeded in producing local weapons that challenge advanced Western weapons and defense systems. The Force Structure of the army should determine which types of weapons the Local Defense Industry will develop and produce for future wars. Importantly, we should distinguish between countries that have local production of various weapons versus countries that mainly rely on imported weapons.

Looking at various Religions worldwide to identify risks of Religion Conflicts and Religion Wars between different religions. Religion Conflicts between different religions can erupt based on different beliefs and values, while Conflicts between Religious Denominations within the same religion can erupt due to different practices of the religion and different ways of life (e.g., Islam-Sunni vs. Islam-Shia in Yemen or Reform Judaism vs. Haredi Judaism in Israel), yet Religion Wars usually erupt based on expansion of territory, such as the Israeli Invasion of other Arab States based on the ideology of Greater Israel rooted in the Old Bible or the Christian Crusades against the Muslims in the Holy Land.

Looking at National Cultures worldwide in terms of Cultural Openness versus Ethnocentrism to identify risks of conflicts and wars due to Cultural Distance. A significant gap in Cultural Distance can even lead to failures in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A). Cultural Openness reflects open-mindedness and tolerance towards cooperation with foreign cultures, while Ethnocentrism reflects belief in superiority over others and a low level of tolerance towards foreign cultures, so Ethnocentrism can lead to more conflicts and wars with foreign cultures. Ethnocentrism even has a risk for the development of racist ideology (e.g., Nazism) and even ethnic cleansing against foreign cultures due to the belief in superiority over others. 

Looking at Natural Disasters and Climate Change worldwide to identify risks of displacement and economic damages. Destruction of property and infrastructure along with climate refugees have become the ‘New Normal’ worldwide due to intense Earthquakes, Volcanic eruptions, Hurricanes, Tornadoes, Floods, Tsunamis, Droughts, and Heatwaves, but extreme Natural Disasters can even lead to Volcanic Winter, Food Insecurity, Mass Displacement, and catastrophic economic damages. Ice Melting in Antarctica due to Global Warming can lead to significant loss of land due to rising sea levels, which may result in loss of cities and a significant change to the Earth’s surface.

Looking at the Ice Melting in Antarctica due to Global Warming to identify risks of significant loss of land worldwide due to rising sea levels, which may result in loss of cities, mass displacement and unprecedented economic damages, and even ‘Nations without Land’. The Ice Melting in the Arctic Sea and Greenland can give us an indication of what is going to be in Antarctica. The Ice Melting in Antarctica may allow establishing settlements in Antarctica, but the cold weather may deter many, so overall, humanity will lose more land in areas with good weather (e.g., in Europe and Asia), which may even lead ‘Nations without Land’ to get into wars over land with good temperature. 

Looking at the Traditional Energy - Oil and Gas - to identify risks of Eenergy Insecurity worldwide in terms of reserves, production, and prices. The significant Reserves of Oil and Gas are mainly in the hands of a few countries, which particularly applies to Gas Reserves. Earth has limited Reserves of Oil and Gas, so the reserves and production should be kept out of wars. The Reserves of Oil and Gas are mainly in the hands of the Russia-China Coalition, so Sanctions on Oil and Gas may backfire on the USA Coalition/Anti-Russia Coalition, especially in the long-run, and in particular, in relation to Gas.  

Looking at various Green Energy solutions worldwide to identify risks of costly alternatives that will not be able to replace traditional energy. Green Energy includes various types of energy, such as solar, wind, hydropower, biomass, and Geothermal, which can be important solutions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to tackle global warming, yet Nuclear Energy should not be considered as a ‘Green Energy’ because of the risk involved in using peaceful nuclear sites due to intense natural disasters on Earth.

Looking at Evolution versus Extinction on Earth to identify risks of problems and disasters from the past that could be repeated today or in the future. We should look at various evidence on Earth, such as Geology, Archaeology, Fossils and Remains in trying to understand the causes for past Extinction and past Human Stagnation. We should also look at what trigger Human Evolution versus what can lead to Human Stagnation. Extinction of species on Earth has become the New Normal in the last two hundred years, especially in North America. 

Looking at Technology and Science to identify risks of stagnation in Technology and Science, particularly in Research and Development (R&D) activities. We should distinguish between New Inventions and New Versions of Products. A New Invention is something that we never had before, while new versions of products improved something that we had before. Although among new versions of products, there is a big difference between New Products (e.g., new look) and Innovative Products (e.g., significant new feature). New apps mainly give a new way for using traditional products that we had before, yet New Apps can not considered as New Inventions. 

Looking at the unprecedented increase in using Artificial Intelligence (AI) worldwide to identify risks of Fraud (e.g., criminal deals based on AI), Deception (e.g., misleading marketing based on AI), Cheating (e.g., studies based on AI), and even Human Stagnation. AI based on ‘Collective-Robotic Thinking’, so AI can lead to significant Human Stagnation when humanity relies heavily on ‘Collective-Robotic Thinking’ instead of ‘Human-Independent Thinking’, which may occur faster than expected, resulting in far less inventions because of the damage to creativity in R&D due to AI. Humanity has already suffered from less inventions compared to the ‘Inventions Boom’ in the 18th-20th centuries, so AI may worsen it in the coming future.

Looking at Space activity worldwide to identify risks of Spacecraft failures and even Space Stagnation regarding the discovery of other planets. We should distinguish between the success of Satellite and Space Rockets activities versus the too-many-to-count failures of Spacecraft activity, both uncrewed spacecraft and crewed spacecraft. The mystery of the existence of other forms of life on other planets has not yet been solved by Humanity, including the lack of unequivocal evidence about whether UFOs exist or not, but the lack of any evidence for Invasion of Earth and Wars between Aliens and Humans on Earth even makes the mystery even more complicated because we have numerous fossils of Dinosaurs and Neanderthals on Earth, but not any fossils of Aliens nor remains of UFOs. Are we still ‘Advanced Monkeys’?: We should remember that Europeans had not yet discovered America 600 years ago, while humanity still lacked electricity and aeroplanes 150 years ago, so perhaps solving this mystery is sublime beyond the current Intelligence of Humanity.

Looking at Africa to identify risks of Conflicts, Wars, Terrorism, and Regime Transformation via Military Coups and Political Assassinations. Africa still suffers from the rise of Military Regimes via Military Coups, as well as from Civil Wars and military confrontations due to ethnic conflicts. Africa also has problems of Food Security, very poor nations, epidemics, rare diseases, and limited health facilities.

Looking at East-South Asia to identify risks that can evolve from the ongoing conflicts in the Region between China Allies versus USA Allies. North Korea and Taiwan are the hottest problems of the region that can lead to regional wars and beyond. 

Looking at Europe-East Oriented, Central Asia and Caucasus region to identify risks of conflicts within the region and with the rival region, Europe-West Oriented. The Europe-East Oriented, Central Asia and Caucasus region includes countries that belonged to USSR, but have remained allies of Russia after the dissolution of the USSR. This region has continuous land territory, which provides advantages in security and trade, but there is a risk for losing these advantages if a split occurs within the center of the region that will lead to uncontinuous land territory.  

Looking at Europe-West Oriented region to identify risks of conflicts within the region and with the rival region, Europe-East Oriented, Central Asia and Caucasus. The Europe-West Oriented region includes European countries that are part of the EU or NATO. Even European countries that would like to be part of the EU or NATO are included in this region, yet keep in mind that some of these countries are considered as ‘Sitting on the Fence’ (e.g., Serbia), so with regard to these countries, there is a dynamic if they belong to Europe-West- Oriented or Europe-East Oriented. This region mainly leads the rivalry against Russia, including massive Sanctions against Russia along with unprecedented military aid to Ukraine, which increase the risks for economic instability (e.g., slowdown and recession) and political instability (e.g., fall of governments and rise of the Far-right) within the Europe-West Oriented region.

Looking at Latin America and the Caribbean to identify risks that evolve from the trying of the superpower USA to force its dominance in the region, regardless of the wish of the USA to get the Venezuelan Oil that led Trump to kidnap President of Venezuela via External Military Coup based on a fabricated story of Drug-Traficking, which increases the risk for regional military conflicts and wars because most of the countries (UN Members) in this region belong to the Russia-China Coalition. Nevertheless, this region includes many Colonies of Western countries that most of them can be considered as Disputed Colonies because of their wish for Self-Determination based on the UN Resolution on Decolonisation. 

Looking at the Middle East, which includes North Africa, to identify risks of conflicts, wars, civil wars, coups, political assassinations, and even war-crimes, ethnic cleansing, and genocide. This region is characterised by political instability due to religious conflicts within the same religion and between different religions, as well as due to ethnic conflicts between different ethnic groups within the same country. Wars in the Middle East could escalate into a significant regional war and even a world war. Oil in the Middle East has long been a significant factor for superpowers seeking dominance in the region, and currently, natural gas also plays a crucial role. The argument about possession of nuclear weapons – formally or informally or not having them at all – is also a cause of conflicts and wars in the Middle East, yet we should remember that countries can possess nuclear weapons via ‘Make or Buy', so the region is at risk of Nuclear war because countries in the region may possess 'secret' nuclear weapons without any supervision or control from international bodies. Even a nuclear war that may involve only 7 warheads has the risk of extinction of humanity, so for the sake of humanity it is imperative to make the Middle East a 'Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone'.

Looking at the Northern America region – which includes the USA (excluding its far colonies and non-contiguous State Hawaii) and Canada, as well as three Colonies: Bermuda of the UK, Greenland of Denmark, and Saint Pierre and Miquelon of France – to identify risks that evolve from the trying of the superpower USA to force its dominance in the region by trying to make Canada and Greenland as Colonies of the USA, either by economic pressure as in the case of Canada, or by ‘Acquisition by Force’ or even via Occupation and Annexation as in the case of Greenland, despite that Greenland has the Right for Self-Determination based on the UN Resolution on Decolonisation.  The current Colonialism Agenda of the USA reflects the Global Dictatorship Era of Trump, which is also manifested in other regions of the world. Nevertheless, the USA and Canada are part of NATO, but exists a stress and even conflicts between NATO-Northern America and NATO-Europe, which increase the risk of military conflicts among NATO countries if the USA tries to force its Colonialism policy via ‘Military Imperialism’ in the style of the 16th century.  

Looking at the Oceania Region to identify risks of Natural Disasters, disputes over Self-Determination between Colonies and Soverign States, and tension between superpowers due to rivalry over 'Security Pacts’ and ‘Foreign Military Presence’.  Natural Disasters could cause further displacement in the region because of the increase in the sea level due to the ice melting in Antarctica and even vanishing some pacific islands from the world map. Superpowers still compete over the Pacific islands to gain ‘Strategic Military Points’, while several Western countries still hold many Colonies in the region by force, despite their wish for Self-Determination, as seen in the case of New Caledonia, where France had to mobilise its military and declare a State of Emergency to overcome the riots stemming from the natives' desire for independence.