The Risk for Failure of Israeli Intelligence
https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks/21/11/2022/1348
Published Date: 21 November 2022 at 13:48
Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
Comments on Contemporary Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher: https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks-all
Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
Researcher in International Relations with a Focus on Security, Political and Economic Risks for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and International Trade
21 November 2022 at 13:48. I was 10 years old in 1973 when the war sirens broke the silence of Yom-Kippur. After I entered the shelter with my family, the radio started to publish the general mobilisation of the IDF. I still remember the countless ‘reserve codes’ that the radio published. The Yom-Kippur War, from the side of Israel, was a surprise war because the intel chief of the IDF failed to predict the surprise attack, despite all the 'red flags'. The intelligence army chief has a critical role because it should evaluate the military threats in order to get the right decisions, such as if needed a change in the military deployment or general mobilisation to prevent a surprise attack, or vice versa, if not needed any move because there is no real threat, which allows saving costs of useless mobilisation.
If an Israeli politician argues that Iran is going to attack the World Cup, then likely I would not mention it because politicians say ridiculous things as part of populism policy. However, when the intel chief of the IDF assessed a ridiculous risk that Iran may attack the World Cup, then it signalled about a big problem, namely the lack of assessing the reality at the regional level, which can backfire in both directions, namely assessing a threat that does not exist, or vice versa, not understanding a real threat. I hope for Israel that surprise sirens will not break the silence one day, but under such illusional intelligence, then my prediction is that the risk is high.
