Global Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

Global Risks Aims to Stimulate Thinking ‘Out of the Box’ about Ongoing Global Problems that Have No Clear Solutions.

Global Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher https://www.rozen-bakher.com/forum

**Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher**

**Researcher in International Relations with a Focus on Security, Political and Economic Risks for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and International Trade**

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Is Nuclear World War could lead to the Extinction of Humanity?

How Many Nuclear Bombs in a Nuclear War will lead to Human Extinction?

How did the dinosaurs become extinct?

What is a Nuclear Winter versus Volcanic Winter?

How many nuclear bombs could lead to a long-term Nuclear Winter that will extinct humanity?

Is Nuclear World War could lead to the Extinction of Humanity?

Yes. If a long-term ‘Nuclear Winter’ occurs in which all the food resources on Earth will be consumed before the ending of the ‘Nuclear Winter’, as happened to Dinosaurs when all of them became extinct.

Today, we have around 13,000 nuclear warheads worldwide, as shown in Charts 1-2 and Map 1 below. However, when we think about the risk of human extinction due to Nuclear War, then we usually think about the death toll that each nuclear bomb could lead to, namely the immediate death toll when it hits the Zero-Ground, and how many severe injuries and fatalities will be in the short-term (a few weeks later), while what will be the scope of the casualties in the mid-term (a few months later), and even in the long-run (a few years later) due to the illnesses. Nevertheless, if during a Nuclear World War all the 13,000 nuclear warheads worldwide are going to be used, then we will have survivors in many places in the world. We know it because when Hiroshima and Nagasaki were bombed with nuclear bombs, we had survivors even in the zero-ground, while some of them survived the severe injuries in the short-term, and some of them even managed to live until old age. Thus, apparently, there is no risk of the extinction of humanity due to a Nuclear World War, but it’s not correct, because the extinction of humanity could occur due to a long-term 'Nuclear Winter' that will last for many years in which all the food resources will be consumed on Earth before the ending of the ‘Nuclear Winter’, as happened to the Dinosaurs when all of them became extinct.

How did the dinosaurs become extinct?

Long-term Nuclear Winter/Volcanic Winter led to the extinction of all the Dinosaurs that survived the collision of the Asteroid that hit Earth, an effect that is equivalent to numerous nuclear bombs.

The mass extinction K–T happened 66 million years ago due to an Asteroid that hit Earth, which led to a sudden extinction of 80% of the plants and species on Earth, including the extinction of all Dinosaurs, while only very small species that consume very limited food managed to survive. The K–T mass extinction was involved with infrared radiation, volcanic activity, falling sea levels, mega earthquakes, tsunamis, ash clouds, toxic gas, electromagnetic radiation, and widespread fires, which led to a combination of Nuclear winter and Volcanic Winter that lasted for many years, resulting in a lack of food on Earth, so those who survived the collision of the Asteroid starved to death after that. Nevertheless, keep in mind that nuclear war is also involved with ionising radiation and not only infrared radiation, like in the case of the collision of an asteroid, namely ionising radiation is much worse compared to infrared radiation.

Dinosaurs documentary: Last Day of The Dinosaurs - Dinosaurs documentary national geographic - YouTube

What is a Nuclear Winter versus Volcanic Winter?

Nuclear Winter is caused by nuclear war, while Volcanic Winter is caused by volcanic activity, yet both of them have the same effect on Earth, namely the direct sunlight is blocked from reaching the Earth's surface, which prevents the growth of plants and agriculture due to the cooling, resulting in famine and even starvation to death if all the food resources are consumed.

In a Nuclear Winter or Volcanic Winter, the direct sunlight is blocked from reaching Earth, resulting in a drastic cooling of the surface of Earth, which leads to starvation and famine due to widespread crop failure, inability to produce agriculture, and lack of growth of plants, such as vegetables and fruits. Keep in mind that Nuclear Winter is caused by nuclear war, while Volcanic Winter is caused by volcanic activity, yet Nuclear war can trigger volcanic activities that could lead to Volcanic Winter, so in a nuclear war, we get a combination of Nuclear Winter and Volcanic Winter. Importantly, in Nuclear Winter, the global average surface cooling is expected to drop to −7°C and even up to -30 °C for many years instead of +15 °C that we have today, which does not allow the existence of life on Earth in its current form.

How many nuclear bombs could lead to a long-term Nuclear Winter that will extinct humanity?

It depends on the size of the Nuclear bombs, yet it's likely that 7-12 nuclear bombs will lead to a nuclear winter that may extinct humanity, while no doubt that 15-20 nuclear bombs will extinct humanity. Although even a small regional nuclear war may lead to a Nuclear winter that will extinct some regions on Earth.

Many researchers have run models (see Research Literature below) over the years to predict how many nuclear bombs will lead to a nuclear winter, yet some researchers argued that even a small regional nuclear war could lead to a Nuclear winter. In spite of the differences between the results of various studies, it’s clear that a nuclear world war involving dozens of nuclear bombs will lead to a long-term nuclear winter that will definitely extinct humanity, as happened to dinosaurs.

Chart 2. Number of Nuclear Warheads: Deployed versus Undeployed

Chart 1. Number of Nuclear Warhead by Country