Nuclear War: Human Extinction
https://www.rozen-bakher.com/forum/2022/03/17/nuclear-war
Published Date: 17 March 2022; Latest Update of Scientific Literature: 14 March 2026
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Rozen-Bakher, Z., Nuclear War: Human Extinction, Global Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher, 17 March 2022, https://www.rozen-bakher.com/forum/2022/03/17/nuclear-war
Global Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
Global Risks Aims to Stimulate Thinking ‘Out of the Box’ about Ongoing Global Problems that Have No Clear Solutions.
Rozen-Bakher, Z. Global Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher https://www.rozen-bakher.com/global-risks
Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
Researcher in International Relations and Foreign Policy with a Focus on International Security alongside Military, Political and Economic Risks for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and International Trade
Is Nuclear World War could lead to the Extinction of Humanity?
Yes. If a long-term ‘Nuclear Winter’ occurs in which all the food resources on Earth will be consumed before the ending of the ‘Nuclear Winter’, as happened to Dinosaurs when all of them became extinct.
Today, we have around 13,000 nuclear warheads worldwide, as shown in Charts 1-2 and Map 1 below. However, when we think about the risk of human extinction due to Nuclear War, then we usually think about the death toll that each nuclear bomb could lead to, namely the immediate death toll when it hits the Zero-Ground, and how many severe injuries and fatalities will be in the short-term (a few weeks later), while what will be the scope of the casualties in the mid-term (a few months later), and even in the long-run (a few years later) due to the illnesses. Nevertheless, if during a Nuclear World War all the 13,000 nuclear warheads worldwide are going to be used, then we will have survivors in many places in the world. We know it because when Hiroshima and Nagasaki were bombed with nuclear bombs, we had survivors even in the zero-ground, while some of them survived the severe injuries in the short-term, and some of them even managed to live until old age. Thus, apparently, there is no risk of the extinction of humanity due to a Nuclear World War, but it’s not correct, because the extinction of humanity could occur due to a long-term 'Nuclear Winter' that will last for many years in which all the food resources will be consumed on Earth before the ending of the ‘Nuclear Winter’, as happened to the Dinosaurs when all of them became extinct.
How did the dinosaurs become extinct?
Long-term Nuclear Winter/Volcanic Winter led to the extinction of all the Dinosaurs that survived the collision of the Asteroid that hit Earth, an effect that is equivalent to numerous nuclear bombs.
The mass extinction K–T happened 66 million years ago due to an Asteroid that hit Earth, which led to a sudden extinction of 80% of the plants and species on Earth, including the extinction of all Dinosaurs, while only very small species that consume very limited food managed to survive. The K–T mass extinction was involved with infrared radiation, volcanic activity, falling sea levels, mega earthquakes, tsunamis, ash clouds, toxic gas, electromagnetic radiation, and widespread fires, which led to a combination of Nuclear winter and Volcanic Winter that lasted for many years, resulting in a lack of food on Earth, so those who survived the collision of the Asteroid starved to death after that. Nevertheless, keep in mind that nuclear war is also involved with ionising radiation and not only infrared radiation, like in the case of the collision of an asteroid, namely ionising radiation is much worse compared to infrared radiation.
What is a Nuclear Winter versus Volcanic Winter?
Nuclear Winter is caused by nuclear war, while Volcanic Winter is caused by volcanic activity, yet both of them have the same effect on Earth, namely the direct sunlight is blocked from reaching the Earth's surface, which prevents the growth of plants and agriculture due to the cooling, resulting in famine and even starvation to death if all the food resources are consumed.
In a Nuclear Winter or Volcanic Winter, the direct sunlight is blocked from reaching Earth, resulting in a drastic cooling of the surface of Earth, which leads to starvation and famine due to widespread crop failure, inability to produce agriculture, and lack of growth of plants, such as vegetables and fruits. Keep in mind that Nuclear Winter is caused by nuclear war, while Volcanic Winter is caused by volcanic activity, yet Nuclear war can trigger volcanic activities that could lead to Volcanic Winter, so in a nuclear war, we get a combination of Nuclear Winter and Volcanic Winter. Importantly, in Nuclear Winter, the global average surface cooling is expected to drop to −7°C and even up to -30 °C for many years instead of +15 °C that we have today, which does not allow the existence of life on Earth in its current form.
How many nuclear bombs could lead to a long-term Nuclear Winter that will extinct humanity?
It depends on the size of the Nuclear bombs, yet it's likely that 7-12 nuclear bombs will lead to a nuclear winter that may extinct humanity, while no doubt that 15-20 nuclear bombs will extinct humanity. Although even a small regional nuclear war may lead to a Nuclear winter that will extinct some regions on Earth.
Many researchers have run models (see Research Literature below) over the years to predict how many nuclear bombs will lead to a nuclear winter, yet some researchers argued that even a small regional nuclear war could lead to a Nuclear winter. In spite of the differences between the results of various studies, it’s clear that a nuclear world war involving dozens of nuclear bombs will lead to a long-term nuclear winter that will definitely extinct humanity, as happened to dinosaurs.
Chart 2. Number of Nuclear Warheads: Deployed versus Undeployed
Chart 1. Number of Nuclear Warhead by Country
Map 1. Countries with Nuclear Weapons
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From the Scientific Literature: Research Papers and Research Books
Adapting agriculture to climate catastrophes: the nuclear winter case Shi, Y., Montes, F., Di Gioia, F., Xia, L., Bardeen, C. G., Anderson, C. T., ... & Kemanian, A. R. (2025). Adapting agriculture to climate catastrophes: the nuclear winter case. Environmental Research Letters, 20(6), 064006.
Nuclear Winter Could Sever Urban Water Access Across the Northern Hemisphere Cuellar, J. E. L., Palm, R., Denkenberger, D., & Jehn, F. U. (2025). Nuclear Winter Could Sever Urban Water Access Across the Northern Hemisphere.
Nuclear war: A scenario Jacobsen, A. (2026). Nuclear war: A scenario. Penguin Group.
Reducing the risks of nuclear war to humanity Helfand, I., Lewis, P., & Haines, A. (2022). Reducing the risks of nuclear war to humanity. The Lancet, 399(10330), 1097-1098.
Global food insecurity and famine from reduced crop, marine fishery and livestock production due to climate disruption from nuclear war soot injection Xia, L., Robock, A., Scherrer, K., Harrison, C. S., Bodirsky, B. L., Weindl, I., ... & Heneghan, R. (2022). Global food insecurity and famine from reduced crop, marine fishery and livestock production due to climate disruption from nuclear war soot injection. Nature Food, 3(8), 586-596.
Ecological and demographic consequences of a nuclear war Svirezhev, Y. M. (2022). Ecological and demographic consequences of a nuclear war. Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG.
Food supply during nuclear winter: Mathematical optimization of frost resistant crop production for a temperate island nation Wilson, N., Payne, B., & Boyd, M. (2023). Food supply during nuclear winter: Mathematical optimization of frost resistant crop production for a temperate island nation.
Advanced nuclear energy: the safest and most renewable clean energy Rehm, T. E. (2023). Advanced nuclear energy: the safest and most renewable clean energy. Current Opinion in Chemical Engineering, 39, 100878.
Nuclear energy: where next? Sun, Z., Chen, Z., Wang, S., Tai, X., & Wang, X. (2026). Nuclear energy: where next?. The Innovation, 7(1).
Prospects for nuclear power Davis, L. W. (2012). Prospects for nuclear power. Journal of Economic perspectives, 26(1), 49-66.
Nuclear energy: An introduction to the concepts, systems, and applications of nuclear processes Murray, R. L., & Holbert, K. E. (2014). Nuclear energy: An introduction to the concepts, systems, and applications of nuclear processes. Elsevier.
Nuclear Winter: Global Consequences of Multiple Nuclear Explosions. Turco, R. P., Toon, O. B., Ackerman, T. P., Pollack, J. B., & Sagan, C. (1983). Nuclear winter: Global consequences of multiple nuclear explosions. Science, 222(4630), 1283-1292.
Nuclear winter revisited with a modern climate model and current nuclear arsenals: Still catastrophic consequences. Robock, A., Oman, L., & Stenchikov, G. L. (2007). Nuclear winter revisited with a modern climate model and current nuclear arsenals: Still catastrophic consequences. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 112(D13).
Nuclear Winter: The Human and Environmental Consequences of Nuclear War. Harwell, M. A. (2012). Nuclear winter: the human and environmental consequences of nuclear war. Springer Science & Business Media.
Nuclear Winter Responses to Nuclear War Between the United States and Russia in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 4 and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE. Coupe, J., Bardeen, C. G., Robock, A., & Toon, O. B. (2019). Nuclear winter responses to nuclear war between the United States and Russia in the whole atmosphere community climate model version 4 and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124(15), 8522-8543.
Winter-safe Deterrence: The Risk of Nuclear Winter and Its Challenge to Deterrence. Baum, S. D. (2015). Winter-safe deterrence: The risk of nuclear winter and its challenge to deterrence. Contemporary Security Policy, 36(1), 123-148.
Nuclear winter is a real and present danger. Robock, A. (2011). Nuclear winter is a real and present danger. Nature 473, 275–276 (2011).
Nuclear Winter: A forecast of the climatic and biological effects of nuclear war. Ehrlich, A. (1984). Nuclear winter: A forecast of the climatic and biological effects of nuclear war. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 40(4), 1s-15s.
Social resilience to nuclear winter: lessons from the Late Antique Little Ice Age. Peregrine, P. N. (2021). Social resilience to nuclear winter: lessons from the Late Antique Little Ice Age. Global Security: Health, Science and Policy, 6(1), 57-67.
Trading Global Catastrophes: NATO’s Science Diplomacy and Nuclear Winter. Turchetti, S. (2021). Trading global catastrophes: NATO’s science diplomacy and nuclear winter. Journal of Contemporary History, 56(3), 543-562.
Agriculture Responses To Nuclear Winter. Robock, A., Xia, L., & Bardeen, C. (2019, December). Agriculture Responses To Nuclear Winter. In AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts (Vol. 2019, pp. GC13F-1201).
A new ocean state after nuclear winter. Harrison, C. S., Rohr, T., DuVivier, A. K., Maroon, E., Bardeen, C., Lovenduski, N. S., ... & Stevens, J. (2019, December). A new ocean state after nuclear winter. In AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts (Vol. 2019, pp. GC13F-1200).
Volcanic Winter? Climatic Effects of the Largest Volcanic Eruptions. Stothers, R. B., Rampino, M. R., Self, S., & Wolff, J. A. (1989). Volcanic winter? Climatic effects of the largest volcanic eruptions. In Volcanic Hazards: Assessment and Monitoring (pp. 3-9). Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg.
