The Significant Gap between the West and Iran to Revive the Iran Nuclear Deal
https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks/05/03/2022/0913
Published Date: 05 March 2022
Rozen-Bakher, Z., The Significant Gap between the West and Iran to Revive the Iran Nuclear Deal, Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher, 05 March 2022, https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks/05/03/2022/0913
Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
Comments on Contemporary Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks-all
Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
Researcher in International Relations and Foreign Policy with a Focus on International Security alongside Military, Political and Economic Risks for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and International Trade
05 March 2022 at 09:13. There is a significant gap between the reporting in the Western news and the Iranian news about the reviving of the Iran nuclear deal. Over the last two months, too many times assessments were made by various actors involved in the negotiation of the deal that the deal is going to be closed in the coming week, yet without any progress, so under this situation, the better way is to follow the facts below to get a better assessment about the probability of reviving the deal:
Iran refuses to make direct negotiations with the USA.
Iran demands that the USA obligates that any next USA president will not withdraw from the deal again. The USA has no ability to obligate to this demand because any future USA president has the ability to withdraw from any previous agreement that was made by any previous USA president.
Before about one month ago, the Iranian parliament passed a ‘law’ that any nuclear deal that Iran will sign in the future must include certain conditions, which the West is unlikely to agree upon them.
The new president of Iran, Raisi, opposes the deal in general, so he puts efforts into neutralising the sanctions on Iran by creating alternative incomes for Iran with non-West allies.
The religious leader Ayatollah Khamenei declared several times recently that the conditions of the previous deal were not good for Iran, so any new deal must include certain new conditions, such as peaceful reactors, the USA's obligation to not withdraw in the future and more.
In light of the above, on the one hand, Iran would like that the sanctions be cancelled, but on the other, Iran insists that any new deal must include new conditions. Given that, my assessment is that any new deal will include new conditions that are less good for the West compared to the previous deal. Still, I have a big doubt if any new deal will be agreed upon between Iran and the West because of the significant gap between the sides alongside the inability to give Iran a guarantee that the USA won't withdraw again from the deal.
See also Iran Nuclear Deal - Monitoring Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher https://www.rozen-bakher.com/monitoring-risks/17/02/2022
