Is Iran Succeeded to Bypass the West Sanctions?
https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks/10/04/2022/0716
Published Date: 10 April 2022
Rozen-Bakher, Z., Is Iran Succeeded to Bypass the West Sanctions?, Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher, 10 April 2022, https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks/10/04/2022/0716
Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
Comments on Contemporary Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks-all
Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
Researcher in International Relations and Foreign Policy with a Focus on International Security alongside Military, Political and Economic Risks for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and International Trade
10 April 2022 at 07:16. If we look at Iran's economy in the last 6 months, then it seems that Iran succeeded in bypassing the West's sanctions with the help of the Russia-China Coalition. Paradoxically, the conservative new Iranian President, Raisi, succeeded in creating counter-sanctions compared to the former reformist Iranian President, Rouhani. Yet the question is why? My analysis indicates that half-democracies/autocratic regimes feel more comfortable in closing deals of ‘bypassing sanctions’ with Raisi over Rouhani. That explains why suddenly Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries have become closer to Iran compared to the period of Rouhani. Still, this is part of the story because it’s likely that Russia, China, and other countries have recently stepped in to help Iran due to the antagonism that has developed against the USA, which stems from the excessive use of power by the USA against countries that don't obey the USA, namely it is implemented by the USA via sanctions and other methods. This trend is even worsened by the severe sanctions against Russia, so now, we have an open war-sanctions between the USA coalition and the Russia-China coalition. Perhaps, this trend could be described as a geopolitics revolt against the hegemony of the USA, which leads to a weakening position of the USA, resulting in a dramatic change in the global order that affects not only the USA but also its loyal allies. That explains why Iran does not rush to close the nuclear deal, why Israel has a wave of military resistance by Palestinians, and why many countries in the last UN vote on Russia openly moved to the side of Russia. My speculation is that this geopolitical revolt against the USA will escalate in the coming period via counter-sanctions of energy by the Russia-China coalition against the USA coalition, so the EU has a high risk because of its dependence on Russian gas without real alternatives for replacing the Russian gas. Even Israel has a big risk of military conflicts because Arab countries may unite more regarding ending the occupation of Palestine, which may increase the likelihood of military confrontations in the Middle-East. Perhaps this revolt is also related to the double standards of the USA and its allies. History proved that empires rise and fall, so it seems that we enter a new era of a dual superpower of Russia-China that will replace the USA as a superpower, yet the USA will always be an important big country like the former British Empire or the French Empire, yet there is a difference between a superpower and an important big country. That should remind us of the big risk of overusing power.
