Will a Change in the Status Quo by the USA Trigger China to Invade Taiwan?: Reflection From the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks2/30/08/2022/0310
Published Date: 30 August 2022
Rozen-Bakher, Z., Will a Change in the Status Quo by the USA Trigger China to Invade Taiwan?: Reflection From the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher, 30 August 2022, https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks2/30/08/2022/0310
Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
Comments on Contemporary Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks-all
Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
Researcher in International Relations and Foreign Policy with a Focus on International Security alongside Military, Political and Economic Risks for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and International Trade
30 August 2022 at 03:10. Will the plan of Biden to provide arms to Taiwan trigger China's invasion of Taiwan? Likely YES.
Perhaps we should take a look at what triggered Russia to invade Ukraine. The answer is simple: Change in the status quo in terms of the arms that the West provided to Ukraine before the invasion, especially long-range missiles, which Russia sees as a threat to Moscow.
Thus, if we look at the case of Ukraine, then if the USA is planning to provide significant arms to Taiwan, then it significantly increases the risk that China will take over Taiwan via invasion or Blockade, so the question is: Is it wise for Taiwan to get into this clash? Likely, Not. Because Taiwan will suffer from harsh devastation in case of invasion or from long suffering due to Blockade, yet either way China eventually will take over Taiwan.
Very likely that Biden plans to impose sanctions on China if China invades or blockades Taiwan, but as we already know from the cases of Iran and Russia, the sanctions are not effective, while they backfire on the West. My prediction is that Biden takes a very high risk for the USA and its allies because of the change in the global order due to the dual superpowers of Russia-China. Biden should think twice if the USA has enough global power to win this conflict against the dual superpowers of Russia-China.
In 1979, the United States officially recognised the People's Republic of China as the sole legal government of China and broke formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, transitioning to unofficial relations under the Taiwan Relations Act.
USA’s Arms Sales to Taiwan
(Taiwan Pays for the Arms)
USA’s Military Aid to Taiwan
(Taiwan gets Arms as a ‘Gift’ from the USA)
USA Military Presence in Taiwan Before 1979
