Sanctions against Iran and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)
https://www.rozen-bakher.com/monitoring-risks/03/02/2022
Published Date: 03 February 2022
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Monitoring Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
Analysing in-Depth Security & Political Risks and Economic & Strategic Risks
Monitoring Risks https://www.rozen-bakher.com/monitoring-risks-1
Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
A Researcher in International Relations with a Focus on Security, Political and Economic Risks for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and International Trade
Sanctions against Iran and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), 3 February 2022
MP says Iran can use SCO capacity to neutralize sanctions - Tehran Times
Iran - Wikipedia; Shanghai Cooperation Organisation - Wikipedia;
The USA and China are like two rival ‘business firms – superpowers’ that compete for ‘customers – allies’. Each of them has loyal ‘customer-allies’ (e.g., the UK for the USA, while North Korea is for China), yet there are many potential ‘customer-allies’ that could move from one ‘firm-superpower’ to another, so when the USA imposes sanctions on one ‘customer-ally’, then it creates an opportunity for China to takeover on the disappointed/frustrated ‘customer-ally’ to increase the ‘market-superpower’ share of ‘customer-allies’ of China. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) serves as a tool for China to neutralise sanctions imposed by the USA on potential ‘customer-allies’ in order to create for China a new loyal ‘customer-ally’. Given that, when the ‘market-superpower’ share of the USA is reduced due to sanctions, then the ‘market-superpower’ share of China is increased. This movement of ‘customer-allies’ between the ‘business firms-superpowers’ occurs regardless of sanctions when a ‘customer-ally’ is abandoned or disappointed by the ‘service’ of its ‘business firm-superpower’.
Hence, several important questions arise regarding the risk of imposing Sanctions against Iran, especially when Iran is a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO):
Could the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) serve as a counter-sanction for the Sanctions against Iran by the USA and its allies?
Is the joining of Iran as a full member of the SCO undermining the motivation of Iran to resume the nuclear deal?
Is Iran willing to go back to the old conditions of the nuclear deal, or will Iran try to get better conditions due to the neutralisation of sanctions via the SCO?
Is China interested in continuing USA sanctions on Iran in terms of the creation of new allies when the USA continues to impose sanctions or imposes new sanctions on a potential ally of China?
Is China not interested in resuming the Iran nuclear deal because of ‘losing control’ of a new ally?
Is the Iran nuclear deal doomed because of the SCO?
Does Iran already have nuclear capabilities via ‘made or buy’ or even getting ‘gifts’ from non-USA rivals/superpowers?
Could global regulation stop the ‘sale‘ of nuclear capabilities or the ‘gifts’ of nuclear capabilities?
Shanghai Alliance SCO Grants Iran full Membership, September 20, 2021
