https://www.rozen-bakher.com/monitoring-risks/12/02/2023

Published Date: 12 February 2023

Monitoring Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

Analysing in-Depth Security & Political Risks and Economic & Strategic Risks

Monitoring Risks https://www.rozen-bakher.com/monitoring-risks-1

**Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher**

**Researcher in International Relations with a Focus on Security, Political and Economic Risks for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and International Trade**

CV

USA Coalition versus Russia-China Coalition, 12 February 2023

Background

Before the Ukraine war, the global order was based on three main superpowers: the USA, Russia, and China. The USA and China act as rivals in every aspect, while Russia positions itself in the centre, between the EU and China, yet Russia and the USA have been long-time old rivals since the cold war. However, the Ukraine war has changed the global order in a fundamental way. First, it forced each country to determine its position regarding the Ukraine war in a way that each country needed to decide whether to join the sanctions against Russia or not, as well as to decide its position regarding the UN votes about the Ukraine war and Russia (see UN Votes 1-6 in Table 1 below). Second, each country even had to decide via UN vote 8 whether to preserve the current global order that is dominated by the USA or to welcome a new global order that will be dominated by Russia and China (see UN Vote 8 in Table 1 below). Third, the West sanctions against Russia pushed Russia to shift its trade from Western countries to non-Western countries, which has led to a significant change in the trade alliances, such as BRICS Plus and SCO, which have started to act not only as trade alliances but also as military alliances via frequent joint drills. Fourth, the Ukraine war also pushed Russia to deepen its strategic relations with China and even to form new strategic alliances, such as with Iran, which strengthened the political power of Iran in a significant way. It can be argued that the joining of Iran as a member of the alliances of SCO and BRICS, alongside the backup that Iran got in the UNHRC (see UN Vote 7 in Table 1 below), signals that Iran became an important strategic ally in the Russia-China Coalition.

Considering the above, this analysis aims to answer the following questions:

Do we have the USA Coalition versus the Russia-China Coalition due to the Ukraine War?
Which countries belong to each Coalition?
Is the Global Order Changed due to the Ukraine War?
Has the Russia-China Coalition formed a counter-NATO?

Therefore, this analysis includes the following Results and Appendices, as shown below:

Main Results
- Map 1. USA Coalition versus Russia-China Coalition
- Table 1. Determination of Coalitions – Geopolitical Position Indicators: Sanctions against Russia, Alliances, Involvement in WWII, Religion, UN Votes 1-8, Sorted by Coalition
- Table 2. Crucial Country Indicators, Sorted by Coalition
- Map 2. Sanctions against Russia
- Map 3. Religion by Coalition
- Table 3. Geopolitical Position Indicators and Crucial Country Indicators: All Countries, Sorted by a-b
- Map 4. Interactive Map of Colonies and Their Sovereign States
- Table 4. Colonies, Sorted by a-b
Appendix I. USA Coalition
Appendix II. Russia-China Coalition
Appendix III. 'Sitting On the Fence' Countries

Methodology

The methodology of my analysis includes a set of ‘Geopolitical Position Indicators’ to determine the geopolitical position of each country in order to distinguish which countries belong to the USA coalition and which countries belong to the Russia-China coalition. Besides, it also includes a set of ‘Crucial Country Indicators’ to get background about the important indicators of each country in terms of population, GDP, Area Size, and Energy Security, which allows comparing the ‘Crucial Country Indicators’ between countries and between coalitions.

‘Geopolitical Position Indicators’

Sanctions against Russia. This indicator is based on the list of ‘Unfriendly Countries and Territories’, which was defined by Russia due to Sanctions that a certain country or territory imposed against Russia. The list of ‘Unfriendly Countries and Territories’ also includes Colonies (see Map 4 and Table 4). However, keep in mind that Colonies have no voting rights in the UN, so it is possible to know the geopolitical position of a colony at the local level, which particularly applies for Colonies that aim to be independent countries. A colony could be defined as a territory that has a long distance from the sovereign country or if the location of the colony belongs naturally to another country or region.
Alliances. This indicator describes the alliances that each country belongs to, yet it refers only to alliances related to the USA Coalition or the Russia-China Coalition, which are applicable to both Military alliances and Multilateral Trade alliances. In other words, this indicator does not include bilateral Trade alliances between two certain countries or Multilateral Trade alliances that the USA or China or Russia does not belong to. Still, it includes the EU in order to distinguish between countries that belong only to the EU and not to NATO. However, this indicator includes both bilateral Military alliances and multilateral Military alliances that either the USA or China or Russia belong to.
Religion. This indicator refers to the major religion in a country, which gives additional background about the country. In general, among Islamic countries exists more antagonism towards the USA, which impacts their geopolitical position.
Involvement in WWII. This indicator gives a past perspective on the involvement of each country in WWII, namely if a country or a past colony was actively involved in WWII or if it kept a fully neutral policy or only a partially neutral policy by giving only assistance without being actively involved in the war.
UN votes. This indicator gives more clear picture of the geopolitical position of each country, regardless of the country position towards the Sanctions against Russia.
- UN Votes 1-6. Since the start of the Ukraine war, six UN votes have took place in relation to the Russian invasion of Ukraine: two votes by the UN security council and four votes by the UN General Assembly, which reveal the position of each country regarding the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
- UN Vote 7. It refers to the vote that was carried out by the UN Human Rights Council regarding how Iran handled the riots in Iran. Iran becomes a strategic ally in the Russia-China Coalition, so this vote reveals how the core of the Russia-China Coalition unified beyond Iran against this resolution that was mainly led by the USA Coalition.
- UN Vote 8. The vote regarding the New International Economic Order that was organised by Russia is the most important UN vote in relation to the ability to distinguish between countries that would like to keep the current global order that is dominated by the USA (Against by the USA Coalition) and countries that would like to change the current global order in a way that Russia and China will be the dominant superpowers instead of the USA (In-Favour by the Russia-China Coalition).
- Additional Remarks about UN Votes.
  - Not Voted. ‘Not Voted’ and repeated ‘Not Voted’, in particular, serve de facto as ‘Against’ the USA Coalition or as ‘in-Favour’ the Russia-China Coalition, depends on the nature of the vote. Likely that a "secret vote" would have revealed the true position of these countries without the fear of pressure. Please see the Table of ‘Not Voted’ in Appendix II. Russia-China Coalition.
  - Favour versus Not Favour in UN Votes 1-7. To distinguish between countries that voted ‘In-favour’ (with the policy line of the USA) versus ‘Not in Favour’, we should take into account the votes of Against, Abstained, and Not Voted to see the total of ‘Not in Favour’ that de-facto refers to countries that did not give their support to the USA coalition. In other words, countries that voted ‘Not in Favour’ gave their support to the Russia-China Coalition instead of to the USA coalition.
    - Favour in UN Votes 1-7 = Total of Favour = USA Coalition
    - Not Favour in UN Votes 1-7 = Total of Against, Abstained, and Not Voted = Russia-China Coalition
  - Against versus Not Against in UN Vote 8. To distinguish between countries that voted ‘Against’ (keeping the dominance of the USA) versus ‘Not Against’, we should take into account the votes of Favour, Abstained, and Not Voted to see the total of ‘Not Against’ that de-facto refers to countries that do not want to keep the current dominance of the USA. In other words, countries that voted ‘Not Against’ gave their support to the Russia-China Coalition instead of to the USA coalition.
    - Against in UN Vote 8 = Total of Against = USA Coalition
    - Not Against in UN Vote 8 = Total of Favour, Abstained, and Not Voted = Russia-China Coalition

Considering the above, looking at each country regarding the Geopolitical Position indicators allows determining if the country belongs to the USA coalition or to the Russia-China coalition or if the country is ‘Sitting On the Fence’.

‘Crucial Country Indicators’

The ‘Crucial Country Indicators’ give background about the important factors of each country, which allows comparing them between countries and between coalitions. The Table below presented the database of the ‘Crucial Country Indicators’. Keep in mind that there are countless important indicators at the country level, yet this analysis includes only five prominent indicators that impact the global political power of a country, as follows:

Table of the Database of the ‘Crucial Country Indicators’

Population. The population size of a country impacts the Market Size of International Trade (Exports and Imports) and even FDI, but it also impacts the military capabilities of a country in terms of the army size, which could be critical in long wars.
GDP. The GDP of a country reflects the economic level of a country, which impacts the consumption, standard of living and development of a country in any field, such as advanced technology and science and advanced weapons.
Area Size. The area size of a country can be considered a strategic asset of a country, especially in relation to natural resources and surviving in long wars. Countries with a big area size have more likelihood to survive long wars and even to resist an invasion attempt compared to countries with a small area size. This particularly applies to wars in the 21st century, which include warfare of missiles and drones. Nuclear warfare should be out of the 'War Games', yet countries with a big area size have the chance even to survive a limited nuclear war.
Gas Reserves. Countries with significant proved reserves of Natural Gas have tremendous global political power because natural gas becomes a relatively rare natural resource that only a small group of countries have.
Oil Reserves. Oil reserves are considered less rare compared to reserves of natural gas, yet countries with significant proved reserves of oil have significant global political power, still, it is also because of OPEC that keeps the political power of the oil countries by controlling the production, prices and exports.

Analysis and Concluding Remarks

As time passed since the start of the Ukraine war, it has become clear that we have two coalitions: the USA Coalition that includes countries that joined the Sanctions against Russia and opposed the new economic order (UN Vote 8), and the opposite, the Russia-China Coalition that includes countries that did not join the sanctions against Russia and welcomed the new economic order (UN Vote 8), and even gave backup to Russia in the UN votes by voting ‘Not Favour’ to Ukraine (UN Votes 1-6), especially by countries that are considered as the Core of the Russia-China Coalition. Nevertheless, several countries like Turkey can be considered as ‘Sitting On the Fence’ because they did not choose one side in this conflict, yet we can not consider them as neutral countries but as countries that are ‘Sitting On the Fence’ and waiting to see who is going to be more powerful under the new global order.

To summarise, the Ukraine war has led to a ‘Merger of Allies’ between Russia and China in a way that each of them brought its allies to the joint coalition. To illustrate it, the Russia and China coalition is like a merger of two superpowers in a way that each superpower brings its ‘strategic assets’ (allies) to the joint coalition, so the synergy of the allies has led to more global political power compared to the global political power of each superpower, Russia or China, before the merger. Importantly, this merger has led to a situation that Russia got access to the allies of China, while China got access to the allies of Russia, which has strengthened the global political power of the Russia-China Coalition compared to the USA Coalition. In other words, before the Ukraine war, the USA was like a monopoly firm with two smaller rivals, Russia and China, while now, the merger between Russia and China forms like a unified big firm that has more ‘market share’ in terms of allies compared to the USA. More specifically, my analysis shows that the Russia-China Coalition includes 148 allies, while the USA coalition includes only 48 allies, so the Russia-China Coalition has more global political power compared to the USA coalition in terms of the number of allies, population, area size and even gas and oil reserves, yet the USA coalition has more global political power in terms of GDP. Although the 'big picture' of the ‘Crucial Country Indicators’ and Alliances shows that countries of the Russia-China Coalition likely will increase their GDP in the mid/long-run by shifting the FDI and international trade from 'non-friendly countries' (Countries of the USA coalition) to 'friendly countries' (Countries of the Russia-China Coalition).

In light of the above, my prediction is that the Ukraine war, instead of increasing the global political power of the USA, then it will lead to the opposite, to backfire on the USA, especially in the long-run when Russia and China will achieve their objectives to change the economic system from domination by the USA to domination by Russia and China. Paradoxically, the new 'Cold War' between the USA and Russia has changed the geopolitical position of Russia from the Center (between the USA and China) to the East (Closeness to China), so only reversing it may save the USA from losing, in the long-run, its position as the leading superpower.

Main Results

Map 1. USA Coalition versus Russia-China Coalition

Table 1. Determination of Coalitions – Geopolitical Position Indicators: Sanctions against Russia, Alliances, Involvement in WWII, Religion, UN Votes 1-8, Sorted by Coalition

Table 2. Crucial Country Indicators, Sorted by Coalition

Map 2. Sanctions against Russia

Map 3. Religion by Coalition

Table 3. Geopolitical Position Indicators and Crucial Country Indicators: All Countries, Sorted by a-b

Map 4. Interactive Map of Colonies and Their Sovereign States

Table 4. Colonies, Sorted by a-b

Note: NATO does not cover Colonies and Dependent Territories

Appendix I. USA Coalition

Table of Geopolitical Position Indicators and Crucial Country Indicators: USA Coalition, Sorted by Population

Table of Alliances of USA Coalition, Sorted by a-b

Note: NATO does not cover Colonies and Dependent Territories

Table of Colonies, Sorted by Sovereign Country

Appendix II. Russia-China Coalition

Table of Geopolitical Position Indicators and Crucial Country Indicators: Russia-China Coalition, Sorted by Population

Table of NOT VOTED in UN Votes: Russia-China Coalition, Sorted by Number of Not Voted

Note, Not Voted serves de-facto as Against the USA Coalition or as Favour to Russia-China Coalition, depending on the nature of the vote. Likely that a "secret vote" would have revealed the true position without the fear of pressure.