Why Russia and China are wooed after Iran?: Military Capabilities of Iran
https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks/09/12/2022/1826
Published Date: 09 December 2022
Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
Comments on Contemporary Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks-all
Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
Researcher in International Relations with a Focus on Security, Political and Economic Risks for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and International Trade
09 December 2022 at 18:26. If I look at the alliances of the Russia-China Coalition, such as BRICS+ and SCO, and even the Russian military alliance, the CSTO, then one of the important reasons that both Russia and China give priority to adding Iran to BRICS+ and SCO is because of the military capabilities of Iran. The USA looks mainly at the relations between Iran and Russia, but based on my analysis, China and Iran also created strategic relations. Perhaps it will be more accurate to say that both Russia and China understood that Iran is an important strategic ally, especially as a military ally, particularly if WWIII erupts, so both countries, Russia and China, put efforts into creating strategic relations with Iran. For Russia and China, Iran is a perfect loyal ally because Iran has a long rivalry with the USA, so Russia and China trusted Iran. If we look at the last vote of the UN Human Rights Council regarding Iran, then China voted ‘Against’ and not ‘Abstained’ like in the votes regarding Russia, which signals how Iran is important to China. If we look at this vote, then Iran has loyal allies, such as Pakistan, Armenia and Venezuela, which makes Iran an important strategic player in the Russia-China Coalition. Besides, if we look at the Russian military alliance, the CSTO, then the last drills had already included Iran, Syria, and more countries as what we call Observer States. We should keep in mind that the process of joining members to the alliances of the Russia-China coalition is less strict and less bureaucratic compared to the ratification of NATO and the EU. Besides, there is no transparency regarding each act or decision in the Russia-China coalition because of the sanctions, so my assumption is that if a country joins informally to CSTO, then doubt that we know about it. Importantly, I can not see a move from the USA and the West that could change the course regarding the role of Iran as a strategic ally of Russia and China. Paradoxically, the USA and the EU pushed Iran into the hands of Russia and China by imposing sanctions against Iran. This situation may also apply to other countries if sanctions are imposed on them by the West, which may push them into the hands of Russia and China.
09 October 2022 at 23:44. CSTO is a military alliance of Russia that includes 6 member states and 5 observer states that regularly and frequently do joint drills. The last drill took place in Kazakhstan over 2 weeks, from 26 September 2022 to 8 October 2022, while the next drill is supposed to start tomorrow, on October 10 2022, over one week, but it is cancelled today, one day before the start of the drill. It's unclear if the cancellation of the joint drill of CSTO is related to the situation in Ukraine, yet the regular frequent drills that include the observer states signal that CSTO should not be underestimated by the West, despite some disagreements among some members of CSTO.
