Russia-Ukraine War: The Failure of the Wishful Thinking of the West's Intelligence
https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks/31/12/2022/0558
Published Date: 31 December 2022
Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
Comments on Contemporary Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher: https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks-all
Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
Researcher in International Relations with a Focus on Security, Political and Economic Risks for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and International Trade
31 December 2022 at 05:58. From the viewpoint of the West, it is very disturbing that the defence leadership (e.g., NATO) and even the intelligence leadership (e.g., British intelligence) do not see clearly the reality as it is, which is reflected via their fallacious assessments. Is China would like that Russia will be weak?! It is OK as wishful thinking from the viewpoint of the West, but to hear this ridiculous assessment from the West defence leadership is disturbing. It reminds me of the repeated assessments from British intelligence in the last weeks that Russia will not have enough missiles to continue with the attacks against Ukraine that, on the contrary, happened. Russia intensified its attacks (see below my previous comment about it).
Since the start of the Ukraine war, not only that China does not want that Russia to be weak, China would also like that Russia to be strong and win the war against Ukraine, or more precisely, that Russia will win the indirect war against the USA and NATO. To ensure that Russia will be strong, economically and militarily, China has started to buy Russian oil and gas to offset the West's sanctions against Russia. China's allies have also started to help Russia to win the war by helping to bypass the West's sanctions, including likely providing weapons. Still, keep in mind that most of this help is done behind closed doors and not publicly as done in the West. It can be argued that the Russia-China Coalition has evolved since the start of the Ukraine war because of the objective of China to ensure that Russia will be strong and not weak, so the defence leaders of the West are wrong in a big way.
Please see below additional two previous comments about this topic.
04 December 2022 at 08:09. Two headlines that show the big problem of the USA in handling the Ukraine war. First, the USA's concept that Russian ammunition will end is like if someone says that the empty weapon storages and lower weapon stock of the USA due to providing weapons to Ukraine will lead to a situation that Ukraine will not have weapons to continue with the war. Second, any statement of the USA about the cruel Russian attacks against Ukraine's infrastructure that lead to ‘Dark and Cold’ alongside ‘Harsh Damage to Civilian Infrastructure' and ‘Civilian Casualties, is like falls on deaf ears in non-West countries because the USA NEVER refers to the Israeli attacks against Gaza that led to the same outcome - ‘Dark and Cold’ alongside ‘Harsh Damage to Civilian Infrastructure' and ‘Civilian Casualties’ - as the cruel attacks against Palestinians. If I need to explain it in one sentence, then the big problem of the USA is the double standard. Not only that the USA suffers from this Double Standards, but also the EU, especially Germany. Are the USA and EU ever imposed sanctions on Israel because of what Israel has done in Palestine? We know the answer. That's what Russia, Iran and others tell non-Western countries. My analysis is that this Double Standards allows Russia to get support from non-Western countries, which will lead eventually to a dramatic change in the global order.
27 November 2022 at 09:11. Since the start of the war, British intelligence has played an important role from the side of Ukraine, but unnecessarily in a constructive way because they spread all along propaganda that I can describe as ‘fairy tales’ or ‘James Bond 007’, but worse, the illusions of British intelligence have led Ukraine to make bad decisions, such as the new ‘wishful thinking’ that Ukraine should not break because eventually, the Russian stockpile of missiles will run out. First, I would like to remind everyone that in WWI and WWII the missile stockpile NEVER run out because the production was made based on 'consumption'. However, now, we are not in WWIII yet, so many non-Western countries can 'donate' or sell weapons to Russia, including missiles, like how Western countries donate weapons to Ukraine, still with a big difference, namely the non-West countries 'donate' weapons to Russia quietly in closed rooms, while Western countries announce about it to the public, yet the outcome is the same, namely Russia and Ukraine will have weapons to continue a long war. Hence, someone should tell the British intelligence that they are wrong to end the suffering of Ukraine because Russia already won this war even if some British intelligence officers don't understand it yet. ‘In war like in war’, there are many ways to win, and Russia has won this war via the failure of 'war-sanctions' and via the 'military front' by creating darkness, cold and devastation in Ukraine, which is even more powerful than taking over territories. Even if NATO joins the Ukraine war, I have a big doubt that NATO will win over Russia because the Russian-China coalition will step in many ways, such as an embargo on oil and gas and even at the military front, which will likely lead to WWIII, resulting in destroying Europe again in the style of WWII. Nevertheless, my prediction is that Russia will punish the EU by creating a 'Cold Winter' by closing the gas, so cold could be not only in Ukraine but also in other European-West countries. Perhaps the big problem of British intelligence is that they lack the understanding that there already exists an indirect war between the 'Russia-China Coalition' and the 'USA Coalition', namely app. 150 countries (Russian-friendly countries) against 50 countries (Russian non-friendly countries). The suffering of the Ukrainian nation should end immediately by telling Zelenskyy that Ukraine cannot win this war and that de facto Ukraine has already lost this war. The West should engage in diplomatic mediation between Russia and Ukraine instead of giving Ukraine illusional hopes that they can win this war.
Inside Russia's attempt to destroy Ukraine "with darkness and cold" (msn.com)
