Is It Possible to Predict a Surprise Attack based on Army Deployment in the Case of Ongoing Conflicts?
https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks2/17/12/2022/2244
Published Date: 17 December 2022
Rozen-Bakher, Z., Is It Possible to Predict a Surprise Attack based on Army Deployment in the Case of Ongoing Conflicts?, Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher, 17 December 2022, https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks2/17/12/2022/2244
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Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
Researcher in International Relations and Foreign Policy with a Focus on International Security alongside Military, Political and Economic Risks for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and International Trade
17 December 2022 at 22:44. What is the difference between a wrong decision to stop an attack and a surprise attack? The answer is simple. In a wrong decision, like in the case of the Iraq invasion of Kuwait (see previous comment below), the satellite images showed clearly that Iraq made an attack deployment, and despite it, the Bush administration made an assessment that Iraq was not going to attack Kuwait. However, in a surprise attack, there is no change in the army deployment, so it cannot be predicted regarding the time of the attack. In ongoing conflicts, an army could make an attack deployment for months and even years, so the other side cannot know if the attack eventually will take place and when the attack will be. An attack deployment for a long time could surprise the other side because it is difficult to stay in a high alarm for a long time. Hence, my prediction is that Ukraine will have a problem to predict the timing of the surprise attack by Russia from Belarus if Russia makes an attack deployment for a long time on the Northern border of Ukraine.
Rozen-Bakher, Z., Surprise Wars – Failure in Collecting Intelligence vs. Failure in Intelligence Assessment vs. Failure in Leaders’ Decision-Making: The Case of the USA’s Failure to Predict the Iraqi Invasion of Kuwait, Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher, 09 April 2022, https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks2/09/04/2022/2029
The length of the land border between Belarus and Ukraine is about 1,100 km
