Can Referendum be a Tool for Resolving a Dispute Over Territory?: Legitimate Referendum
https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks2/28/09/2022/1211
Published Date: 28 September 2022
Rozen-Bakher, Z., Can Referendum be a Tool for Resolving a Dispute Over Territory?: Legitimate Referendum, Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher, 28 September 2022, https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks2/28/09/2022/1211
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Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
Researcher in International Relations and Foreign Policy with a Focus on International Security alongside Military, Political and Economic Risks for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and International Trade
28 September 2022 at 12:11. A referendum could be a good solution if there exists a conflict between two countries about a certain territory, so the will of the people in the conflict region will determine via referendum in which country they would like to belong, yet it should be via a legitimate referendum. Conducting a referendum during a war is not optimal when there exists continuous conflict or war, but still it is better than annexation without a referendum or holding occupation for long, like the case of Palestine. However, to consider a referendum as a legitimate referendum, three main conditions should apply: i) The participation vote rate should be above 50% whatever the results. ii) No one should force anyone to vote. iii) No one should force anyone to choose a certain vote, yes or no. It seems that Russian authorities did not force anyone to vote or to vote yes or no in the four referendums in the occupied regions in Ukraine, yet it is unclear based on the Western media what the participation vote rate was in each region. From my point of view, the participation vote rate above 50% will determine if the referendum is legitimate or not, yet under two assumptions that Russia did not force a vote or a certain vote.
See also the previous comment on this topic below.
20 September 2022 at 19:07. A Referendum is the only way of giving the locals of a conflict territory to choose their destiny, but only if the referendum is made in a democratic way. Referendums were already done in the past in Donetsk and Luhansk, so the current referendums in these two regions are supposed to be the final say before the annexation of these two regions to Russia. However, the referendums in the other two regions – Kherson and Zaporizhzhia – are new ones, and they may reveal the strategy of Russia in Ukraine, namely takeover of territory, and after that, making a referendum to create a legitimate annexation. It will be interesting to see what the results of the new referendums in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia will be and, importantly, if Russia indeed will be able to carry out democratic referendums during a war. Although if we look at other annexations in the world, then many of them were done without referendums, so Russia wants a legitimate annexation, yet the big question is how Russia will handle it during a war.
