Section C. Methodology, 2024 Global Survival Rank (GSR) by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

Written By Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

2024 Global Survival Rank (GSR) by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

https://www.rozen-bakher.com/gsr/2024/e/methodology

Published: 30 April 2024

COPYRIGHT ©2022-2024 ZIVA ROZEN-BAKHER ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

Global Survival Rank (GSR) by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher: Yearly Rank to Compare the Global Political Power among Countries, Alliances and Coalitions to Survive Long Wars at the Military, Economic, and Political Levels

Rozen-Bakher, Z. Global Survival Rank (GSR) by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher https://www.rozen-bakher.com/gsr

Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

Researcher in International Relations and Foreign Policy with a Focus on International Security alongside Military, Political and Economic Risks for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and International Trade

CV

Section C. Methodology, 2024 Global Survival Rank (GSR) by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

 

Section C - List of Contents

C. Methodology

  • C1. Survival Factors Included in Global Survival Rank

    • C1.1 Area Size (R1): Indicator - Surface Area

    • C1.2 Army Size (R2): Indicator - Population Share of Men at 17-49

    • C1.3 Military Expenditure in Long Wars (R3): Indicator - 25% of GDP

    • C1.4 Technology Level (R4a): Indicator - Published Scientific and Technical Articles

    • C1.5 Distance From Colony to Sovereign State (R4b): Indicator - Straight Line Distance in Global Map

    • C1.6 Energy Security - Gas(R5) and Oil (R6): Indicators - Gas Proved Reserves and Oil Proved Reserves

    • C1.7 Food Security (R7): Indicator - Agricultural land

  • C2. Intervening Factors that Impact the Survival in Long Wars

    • C2.1 Sovereignty Status (M1)

      • C2.1.1 UN Member/UN Observer State 

      • C2.1.2 Disputed Country/Disputed Territory

      • C2.1.3 SAR Special Administrative of China

      • C2.1.4 Colony

    • C2.2 Region (M2)

    • C2.3 Religion Majority (M3)

    • C2.4 Main Subdivision of Religion Majority (M4)

    • C2.5 Sovereignty State with Colonies (M5)

    • C2.6 International Recognition of Disputed Countries (M6)

    • C2.7 Limited International Recognition of UN Members and UN Observer States (M7)

    • C2.8 Alliances (M8)

    • C2.9 Coalitions (M9)

      • C2.9.1 Criteria for Determination of Coalitions

        • C2.9.1.1 Sanctions Against Russia

        • C2.9.1.2 United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) Vote on ‘New International Economic Order’

      • C2.9.2  Normal Type of Member of Each Coalition

        • C2.9.2.1 Normal Type of Member of USA Coalition 

        • C2.9.2.2 Normal Type of Member of Russia-China Coalition 

        • C2.9.2.3 'Sitting On the Fence’ Countries

    • C2.10 United Nations Security Council (UNSC) (M10)

  • C3. Methodology Notes

 

C. Methodology

The Global Survival Rank (GSR) compares the Survival in Long Wars at the Country Level and at the Colony Level. A Low Global Survival Rank represents a Low Risk, while a High Global Survival Rank represents a High Risk. The Chart below presents the Research Model of the 2024 Global Survival Rank, which includes 7 Survival Factors (R1-R7) that impact directly the Survival of a Country or a Colony in Long Wars, as well as 10 Intervening Factors (M1-M10) that also influence the Survival of a Country or a Colony in Long Wars, either by reducing the Risk or by increasing the Risk at the country/colony level. For example, if a country has a High Global Survival Rank (High Risk) based on the Survival Factors (R1-R7), still, Membership in a Military Defence Alliance (M8) can reduce the Risk, such as in the case of North Macedonia that its Global Survival Rank is 149, yet North Macedonia is a Member in NATO, so the Global Survival Rank of North Macedonia under the Collective Rank of NATO Members is 75.8. On the opposite, a country can have a Low Global Survival Rank (Low Risk), still, another Intervening Factor can increase the Risk, such as in the case of France that its Global Survival Rank is 16, but when we take into account its 11 Colonies with an Average Distance of 9,453 km, then the Global Survival Rank of France increases to 198.5. Thereby, Section C1 presents the 7 Survival Factors (R1-R7), while Section C2 presents the 10 Intervening Factors (M1-M10). Besides, Section E presents the Test Analysis of the Research model, as follows: Sections E1-E9 present the Test Analysis of the 2024 Global Survival Rank (R1-R7), while Sections E10-E39 present the Test Analysis of the Intervening Factors (M1-M10).

Chart 4. Research Model of 2024 Global Survival Rank

C1. Survival Factors Included in Global Survival Rank

In light of the explanations that were given in section B1 about the crucial factors that impact the survival in Long Wars, then the Global Survival Rank (GSR) includes the following Survival Factors: Area Size (R1), Population and Army Size (R2), GDP and Military Expenditure in Long Wars (R3), Technology Level (R4a), Distance From Colony to Sovereign State (R4b), Natural Gas-Proved Reserves (R5), Oil-Proved Reserves (R6), and Food Security (R7), still, keep in mind that there is a difference between Countries and Colonies regarding R4 namely, R4a refers to countries, while R4b refers to colonies. Importantly, each Survival Factor has a different Weight in the Global Survival Rank as presented in Table 9 (Countries) and Table 10 (Colonies).

  • Countries: R1 Area Size (25% of GSR), R2 Army Size (20% of GSR), R3 Military Expenditure in Long Wars (20% of GSR), R4a Technology Level (12% of GSR), R5 Natural Gas-Proved Reserves (10% of GSR), R6 Oil-Proved Reserves (8% of GSR), R7 Food Security (5% of GSR)

  • Colonies: R1 Area Size (25% of GSR), R2 Army Size (20% of GSR), R3 Military Expenditure in Long Wars (20% of GSR), R4b Distance From Colony to Sovereign State (12% of GSR), R5 Natural Gas-Proved Reserves (10% of GSR), R6 Oil-Proved Reserves (8% of GSR), R7 Food Security (5% of GSR)

Table 9. Global Survival Rank for Countries: Survival Factors and Their Weight in the Global Survival Rank

Note, A Country refers to UN Members, UN Observer States, and Disputed Countries that made a Self-Declaration of an Independent Country. This Category also includes the SARs of China.

Table 10. Global Survival Rank for Colonies: Survival Factors and Their Weight in the Global Survival Rank

Note, A Colony Refers to a Territory under the Sovereignty of a Distant State without that the Territory made a Self-Declaration of an Independent Country.

C1.1 Area Size (R1): Indicator - Surface Area in sq. km

The Area Size is tested via the World Bank's Indicator of the Surface Area in sq. km that includes the Land and Water in the Country/Colony Territory. More specifically, according to the World Bank's definition, the Surface area is a country's total area, including areas under inland bodies of water and some coastal waterways. The Global Survival Rank used this indicator that includes the Water of the Territory and not only the Land because the Water of the Territory played an important role in protecting the Territory during wars, namely in the Territorial Water, where only the Navy of the Territory can station, while in the International waters, any Navy from any country worldwide can sail or even stop in the middle of the High Sea (see Map 2). Moreover, Territorial Water can also play a role in relation to the expedition of Oil and Gas, as well as in relation to Gas Reserves and Oil Reserves, which led many countries to ‘increase’ the Territorial Water of the country, and even it led to the creation of ‘Gray Area of Water’ via new definitions as Contiguous Zone, the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) (see Chart 4), which de-facto increase the Territorial Water of the countries/colonies including the control area of its Navy.

Map 2. High Seas

Chart 4. Territorial Sea versus Contiguous Zone versus Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) versus High Seas

C1.2 Army Size (R2): Indicator - Population Share of Men at 17-49

The Army Size is tested via the Indicator that refers to the Maximum Availability of Men at ages of 17-49 in the Country/Colony. The Indicator takes into account only Men and Not Women because usually, Women do not engage in Fighting, so the critical number of the Army Size during Long Wars refers to Men who can fight on the battlefields, still, Women always played an important role during World Wars, but mainly by giving a Military backup and a Civil Backup. Besides, the indicator is based on the age group of 17-49 because, in most countries, the Reserve Force relies mainly on this age group. Moreover, in any country, there are men who get exemptions from service in the army (e.g., health problems), so the indicator looks at the MAXIMUM availability of men in the same age group to allow comparison of the army size among all countries. Importantly, to allow comparison of the Army Size between all countries/colonies worldwide, then the indicator is based on an equation [(Population*50%)*44%] that stems from the Population, a measure that is available to all Countries and Colonies. More specifically, Men have a share of 50% of the Population, while the share of the age group of 17-49 years old is 44% of the population, so the equation [(Population*50%)*44%] takes into account these two measures to calculate the Maximum Availability of Men at ages of 17-49 in the Country/Colony that can fight in Long Wars, as presented below via the example of Algeria:

The Equation of the Army Size based on the Population:

50% of Population = Total Men in the Country/Colony

44% of Population = The Share of the Age Group of 17-49 in the Population

[(Population*50%)*44%]  = Maximum Availability of Men at ages of 17-49 in the Country/Colony that can Fight in Long Wars

An Example of Algeria to Illustrate the Equation of the Army Size:

The Population of Algeria is 44,903,225, so 44,903,225*50% = 22,451,613 which reflects the Total of Men in Algeria

The Total of Men in Algeria is 22,451,613, so 22,451,613*44% = 9,878,710 which reflects the Total of Men at ages of 17-49 in Algeria

The Army Size in Algeria is 9,878,710 which reflects the Maximum Availability of Men at ages of 17-49 in Algeria who can Fight in Long Wars

C1.3 Military Expenditure in Long Wars (R3): Indicator - 25% of GDP

The Military Expenditure in Long Wars is tested via the Indicator of 25% of GDP based on the GDP of the World Bank. First, this Indicator takes into account only the Military Expenditure that relies on the money that the country has, namely based on its GDP, rather than on Military Aid that is given by others. We should remember that in Long Wars, especially in World Wars, the ability of Strong Countries to give Military Aid to their Weak Allies is very limited as time passes from the start of the War, so at the end of the day, the survival of each country in terms of buying munitions and weapons or even buying Raw Materials for Production of munitions and weapons depends on the Self-Money that each country has based on its GDP. Second, this Indicator takes into account 25% of GDP for Military Expenditure in Long Wars because the costs of Long Wars, especially in the case of World Wars are becoming higher and higher when the war drags on, which can be even higher than 25% of GDP, such as in the case of Ukraine (see Table 11). However, the 25% of GDP takes into account that at the start of the War, it may be lower than 25% of GDP because the Army used the munitions and weapons that it has in the emergency warehouses, but after 1-2 years of Long War, it will be higher than 25% of GDP due to the need to buy or produce more munitions and weapons, so the 25% of GDP reflects the Average between the Costs of the war at the start of the war and the Costs of the War after 1-2 years.

Table 11. The Military Spending of Ukraine, % of GDP, 1994-2023

Source: SIPRI

C1.4 Technology Level (R4a): Indicator - Published Scientific and Technical Articles

The Technology Level is tested via the World Bank’s Indicator of Scientific and Technical Journal Articles, which refers to the Number of Scientific and Engineering Articles Published in the following fields: Physics, Biology, Chemistry, Mathematics, Clinical Medicine, Biomedical Research, Engineering and Technology, and Earth and Space Sciences. Thus, this indicator gives well-grounded support for the Technology Capabilities at the Country Level, especially regarding the R&D of Weapons and Ammunitions, as well as for the ability to maintain weapons and to improvise alternative spare parts for weapons when their availability in the global market is limited during long wars.

C1.5 Distance From Colony to Sovereign State (R4b): Indicator - Straight Line Distance in Global Map

The Distance From a Colony to its Sovereign State is tested via the Indicator of the Straight Line Distance in the Global Map From Capital to Capital in Km, which allows a comparison of the shortest distance among all colonies. In general, there are 3 measures of distance, namely via Air, Land and Sea, which each of them provides a different distance. However, in the case of Colonies that are located mainly on isolated islands, then the relevant measures of distance are by Sea or Air. Nevertheless, due to the long distance from colonies to their Sovereign States that can be via various Air Routes or various Sea Routes, then the Global Survival Rank uses an indicator that provides the shortest distance via a Straight Line on the Global Map instead of using the shortest distance via a certain Air Routh or a certain Sea Routh due to the concern that it may be blocked during long wars, which allows comparing the distance to all colonies without any bias.

C1.6 Energy Security - Gas(R5) and Oil (R6): Indicators - Gas Proved Reserves and Oil Proved Reserves

Energy Security is tested via two Indicators: Gas Proved Reserves in cubic meters (R5) and Oil Proved Reserves in tonnes (R6). The Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy provides each year the latest database at the country level (https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review) regarding various types of energy, including Gas and Oil. There are several important indicators for Gas and Oil, such as Production, Consumption, Prices and Proved Reserves. The Global Survival Rank uses the measure of Proved Reserves because it gives the best indication about the Energy Security at the country level during long wars compared to the other indicators, such as the level of Production that reflects how much the country produced Oil and Gas at a certain year or the Oil and Gas Stocks that the country has, which depend on how much the country buys or sells each year (Biden sold off nearly half the U.S. oil reserve. Is it ready for a crisis?, POLITICO, 10/16/2023). Therefore, the indicator of the Proved Reserves gives the best indication for Energy Security because the stocks may not be enough for a long war, regardless of the hurdle to fill the stock during long wars due to the struggle of buying gas and oil during wars. Thereby, those countries that have Proven Reserves of Gas and Oil have more Energy Security to survive long wars compared to countries that rely only on stocks.

C1.7 Food Security (R7): Indicator - Agricultural land

The Food Security is tested via the World Bank’s Indicator of Agricultural land in sq. km, which refers to the share of land area that is arable, under permanent crops, and under permanent pastures. The Global Survival Rank (GSR) used this indicator because it gives a clear indication of whether the country/colony can rely on local food instead of imported food, regardless of the Area Size. Thereby, there are countries that have a big Area Size without Agricultural land, such as Western Sahara that has a Big Area Size of 266,000 sq. km without any Agricultural land because of the desert. On the opposite, some small countries have a large size of Agricultural land, such as Lesotho that has a relatively Small Area Size of 30,360 sq. km yet with a large area of Agricultural land of 24,330 sq. km. Therefore, Western Sahara is an example of a country with a low level of Food Security, while Lesotho is an example of a country with a high level of Food Security.     

C2. Intervening Factors that Impact the Survival in Long Wars

The 2024 Global Survival Rank includes the following 10 Intervening Factors (M1-M10): Sovereignty Status (M1), Region (M2), Majority of Religion (M3), Main Subdivision of Religious Majority (M4), Sovereignty State with Colonies (M5), International Recognition of Disputed Countries (M6), Limited International Recognition of UN Members and UN Observer States (M7), Alliances (M8), Coalitions (M9), and United Nations Security Council (UNSC) (M10), which are discussed in full detail in this section. 

C2.1 Sovereignty Status (M1)

The Sovereignty Status Factor reflects the difference in risk between Independent Countries that have Formal Sovereignty via UN membership and those that lack Formal Sovereignty, such as Disputed Countries. Hence, this factor includes 4 types of Sovereignty Status, as presented in this section.

C2.1.1 UN Member/UN Observer State 

A UN Member refers to a Country that has Full Membership in the United Nations. Membership in the UN gives a clear indication that a country has Sovereignty over a certain territory at the Formal Level. However, a Country that has a Formal Status of an Observer State in the United Nations. A status of UN Observer State signals that the Disputed Country already has enough International Recognition to be in the process of becoming an Independent Country, such as the case of Palestine, which has already received international recognition from 139 countries, unlike the case of Kosovo, in which, despite that 106 Countries have already recognised its Self-Declaration, Kosovo still does not have the status of UN Observer State like Palestine. 

C2.1.2 Disputed Country/Disputed Territory

‘Disputed Country’ refers to a country that lacks the status of UN Member or UN Observer State, yet the Disputed Country runs as an Independent Country following the Self-Declaration of the Country, still, the Disputed Country has Limited International Recognition and a Conflict with the country that claims sovereignty for the territory, such as the Disputed Country Kosovo that has a sovereignty conflict with Serbia or the Disputed Country Somaliland that has a sovereignty conflict with Somalia. However, a Disputed Territory refers to a Self-Declaration of a Territory that runs under its Sovereign State that does not recognise the Self-Declaration of the Territory, such as the Disputed Territory of Puntland under its Sovereign State Somalia. In the case of Disputed Territory, there is no International Recognition of the Territory.   

C2.1.3 SAR Special Administrative of China

China has two Special Administrative Regions (SARs): Hong Kong and Macau. Both of them are Former Colonies of the UK and Portugal that were returned to their ‘Home Country’, China, yet after their handover, Hong Kong and Macau got the status of Special Administrative Regions (SARs) in China. Hong Kong was a Colony of the UK from 1841 until 1997 when it was handed over to China, while Macau was a Colony of Portugal from 1557 until 1999 when it was handed over to China.

C2.1.4 Colony

A Colony Refers to a Territory under the Sovereignty of a Distant State without that the Territory made a Self-Declaration of an Independent Country, still, there are colonies that would like to get self-determination from their Sovereign State without Conflict but via a peaceful mechanism, such as via Referendum.  

C2.2 Region (M2)

Analysing the Region Level allows us to identify the Characteristics, Strengths and Weaknesses of each region in the case of Long War. There are many Region Classifications, such as the Region Classification of the United Nations that more reflects the Past than the Present. Hence, the 2024 Global Survival Rank includes 10 main Sub-Regions that reflect the current Geopolitics and Global Order, as follows (a-b): Africa, the Atlantic Ocean, Central Asia and the Caucasus, East-South Asia, Europe, the Indian Ocean, Latin America & the Caribbean, the Middle East, North America, and Oceania. Still, Europe includes 2 sub-European Regions: Western European Countries and Eastern European Countries. Notably, many still define the Former Allies of the USSR as Eastern European Countries, such as Poland and Hungary, despite that many years ago, these countries transformed into 'West Europe' by becoming EU Members and NATO Members. Thus, if we take into account membership, either in the EU or NATO or Schengen Area, then we have only a few Eastern European countries, such as Russia and Belarus. Still, keep in mind that some Former USSR states or Former Allies of the USSR that are still defined as 'East' belong to the Region of ‘Central Asia & Caucasus’, rather than to Europe, such as Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Kazakhstan. Nevertheless, even if a country like Ukraine does not belong yet to the EU or NATO, we should take into account the ‘Western Orientation’ of the country. Thus, the distinction between Western European Countries and Eastern European Countries is based on their current reality or their current ‘Western Orientation’ or ‘Eastern Orientation’ that reflects their Future Objectives.

C2.3 Religion Majority (M3)

The Majority of Religion refers to the Biggest Share of Religion in a certain country or colony. The Majority of Religion in a country impacts significantly on how the country runs, who are the Allies of the Country and to which Alliances, Blocs and Coalitions the Country belongs, and it even impacts the Military-Culture of the country. Note, some colonies have a different religious majority from their Distant Sovereign State, which impacts the colony in various ways. 

C2.4 Main Subdivision of Religion Majority (M4)

The Main Subdivision of Religious Majority refers only to Countries and Colonies that have a majority of Christianity or a Majority of Islam. Thus, the Main Religious Subdivision refers to the Biggest Share among Christianity or among Islam. The Main Subdivision of Religious Majority plays an important role in the National Culture of a country because it impacts the country at the economic and political levels, including the attitude towards Conflicts and Wars, such as significant differences between Catholic versus Protestant or between Islam-Sunni versus Islam-Shia.

C2.5 Sovereignty State with Colonies (M5)

The ‘Sovereignty State with Colonies’ looks at how the Colonies impact the Survival of the Sovereign State itself. In other words, each Sovereign State that has Colonies needs to give Military Protection to its Colonies during wars, including taking care of their Food Security and Energy Security, which can be a complex task during Long Wars, especially in World Wars. Importantly, most of the Military Defence Treaties do not cover Colonies, so each Sovereign State needs to defend its colonies by its own means in the case of an attack against the colonies, which makes it harder when the Sovereign State has many Colonies with Long Distance to them. Hence, this factor takes into account the Total Colonies per Sovereign State including the Sovereign State itself.

C2.6 International Recognition of Disputed Countries (M6)

The scope of the International Recognition of Disputed Countries in terms of how many countries recognised the Country Self-Declaration determines if the Disputed Country has the prospect of becoming an independent country by getting the status of UN Member or if it will be under conflict for long with the Sovereign State that claims Sovereignty for the territory. Importantly, any Disputed Country has two camps: those countries that recognised the Self-Declaration of the Independent Country and those countries that did not recognise the Self-Declaration, which usually signals who are the Allies or the Rivals in the case of a Conflict or a War between the Disputed Country and the Country that Claims Sovereignty for the territory.  Hence, looking at the International Recognition of Disputed Countries allows us to map the ongoing conflicts worldwide related to the Self-Determination of countries that wish to become Independent Countries. 

C2.7 Limited International Recognition of UN Members and UN Observer States (M7)

Membership in the United Nations gives a clear indication that a country has Sovereignty over a certain territory at the Formal Level. However, there are UN Members and UN Observer States that have Limited International Recognition due to Ongoing Conflict, such as in the case of Israel that despite 76 years passed since its establishment as an Independent country, 29 countries worldwide still don’t recognize the Sovereignty of Israel due to Muslim/Arab-Israeli Conflict in general, and due to the Israeli Occupation of Palestine, in particular. Nevertheless, a status of UN Observer State, as in the case of Palestine, signals that the Disputed Country has already got enough International Recognition to be in the process of becoming an Independent Country. Hence, looking at the limited International Recognition of UN Members and UN Observer States allows us to map the ongoing conflicts worldwide.

C2.8 Alliances (M8)

There are numerous Alliances worldwide, but there are several Alliances that have an impact on Survival in Long Wars as discussed in Section B2. Hence, the 2024 Global Survival Rank includes all the Relevant Multilateral and Bilateral Military Defence Treaties with a commitment to defence in the case of an attack, either under an Equal Commitment Treaty (Two-Directions) or under a Non-Equal Commitment Treaty (One-Direction). Besides, the 2024 Global Survival Rank includes only important Multilateral Trade, Economic, and Political Alliances with Security Cooperation that have an impact on Geopolitics and Global Order. Considering the above, the 2024 Global Survival Rank includes the following Alliances: NATO, CSTO, GCC, Arab League, China's Bilateral Military Defence Treaties, the USA's Bilateral Military Defence Treaties, CIS, SCO, BRICS, NDB, EU, Eurozone, QIZ, USMCA, OPEC, and OIC (Monitoring Alliances by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher https://www.rozen-bakher.com/monitoring-alliances). Nevertheless, there is a plan to add more Alliances to the 2025 Global Survival Rank.

C2.9 Coalitions (M9)

The Current Global Order includes One Superpower, the USA versus the Dual Superpowers of Russia-China, which has led de-facto to Two Coalitions: The USA Coalition that includes the Allies of the USA versus the Russia-China Coalition that includes the Allies of Russia-China, yet some countries can be considered as ‘Sitting On the Fence’ Countries because they are not fully faithful, neither to the USA nor to Russia-China. Hence, the assumption is that if WWIII erupts, then it will be between the two rival Coalitions, still, some countries from each coalition will be involved directly in the war, while other countries will give support to their coalition at the Military, Political, and Economic Levels.

C2.9.1 Criteria for Determination of Coalitions

Considering the above, the 2024 Global Survival Rank determines to which coalition each country belongs based on two main indicators: Sanctions Against Russia and the UN Vote about the ‘New International Economic Order’ as described below. Notably, this determination was also used in the 2023 Global Survival Rank (For more details about the determination of the Coalitions, please see Monitoring Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher, 12 February 2023, USA Coalition versus Russia-China Coalition https://www.rozen-bakher.com/monitoring-risks/12/02/2023).

C2.9.1.1 Sanctions Against Russia

The First indicator is the Sanctions Against Russia, which allows us to determine which countries are part of the USA Coalition based on their joining the USA in imposing Sanctions against Russia, while which countries are part of the Russia-China Coalition based on their decision to NOT join the USA in imposing Sanctions against Russia, as follows: 

  • YES - USA Coalition. Countries that joined the USA in imposing Sanctions against Russia.

  • NO - Russia-China Coalition. Countries that did not join the USA in imposing Sanctions against Russia.

C2.9.1.2 United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) Vote on ‘New International Economic Order’

The Second Indicator is the UN Vote about the ‘New International Economic Order’ that was brought to vote by Russia on 14 December 2022, which allows us to determine which countries would like to preserve the Global Dominance of the USA at the economic and political levels and which countries would like to replace the Global Dominance of the USA with other alternatives, as follows:

  • Against - USA Coalition. Countries that voted ‘Against’ the resolution of the ‘New International Economic Order’ to preserve the Global Dominance of the USA.

  • ‘In Favour’ - Russia-China Coalition. Countries that voted ‘In Favour’ of the resolution of the ‘New International Economic Order’ to replace the Global Dominance of the USA with other alternatives.

  • Abstained - ‘Sitting On the Fence’ Countries. Only one country, Turkey, Abstained on this vote as part of its trying to be Neutral in relation to the conflict between the USA Coalition and Russia-China Coalition, especially because this resolution was brought to vote by Russia.

  • Not Voted - Russia-China Coalition. ‘Not Voted’ is a tactic that is implemented in general in UN Votes, mainly by Small or Weak countries to avoid pressure from powerful countries.  In this Vote, it is clear to see that those 19 countries that ‘Not Voted’ are from the Russia-China Coalition, as presented below. (For more Details about the Tactic of ‘Not Voted’ to avoid Pressure, Please see Is ‘Not Voted’ in UN votes Should Consider as ‘Abstain’ or ‘Soft Against’? - Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks/25/02/2023/1000).

  • N/A Not Applicable. ‘Not Applicable’ refers to Colonies, Disputed Countries, Disputed Territories, and Special Administrations of China that have no Right to Vote in the UN. In spite of that, all colonies were defined in the 2024 GSR as part of the ‘USA Coalition’ because their Sovereign States are part of the USA Coalition. However, Due to the inability to know the position of Disputed Countries regarding the ‘New International Economic Order’, then two criteria apply in relation to Disputed Countries, as follows: i) If the Disputed Country Joined or did Not join the Sanctions against Russia. ii) Which countries recognised the Disputed Country among each coalition in order to reveal the Allies of the Disputed Country. Moreover, all colonies were defined in 2024 GSR as part of the ‘USA Coalition’ because their Sovereign States are part of the USA Coalition.

Table 12. List of Countries that ‘Not Voted’ on the UN Resolution - ‘New International Economic Order’

C2.9.2  Normal Type of Member of Each Coalition

C2.9.2.1 Normal Type of Member of USA Coalition 

Considering the criteria that are presented in Section C2.9.1, here is the Normal Type of Country or Colony that belongs to the USA Coalition:

  • YES - Sanctions Against Russia

  • Against - UNGA Vote on ‘New International Economic Order’

C2.9.2.2 Normal Type of Member of Russia-China Coalition 

Considering the criteria that are presented in Section C2.9.1, here is the Normal Type of Country that belongs to the Russia-China Coalition:

  • NO - Sanctions Against Russia

  • In Favour or Not Voted - UNGA Vote on ‘New International Economic Order’

C2.9.2.3 'Sitting On the Fence’ Countries

Considering the criteria that presented in Section C2.9.1, ‘Sitting On the Fence’ Countries are a Mixed Type namely, ‘Sitting On the Fence’ Countries are not fully faithful, neither to the USA nor to Russia-China, which is reflected in a Mixed Position. For Example, on the one hand, a country did not join the Sanctions against Russia, but on the other hand, the country voted to keep the Global Economic Dominance of the USA, or vice versa, on the one hand, a country joined the Sanctions against Russia, but on the other hand, the country voted in Favour to replace the Global Economic Dominance of the USA. Importantly, most of the ‘Sitting On the Fence’ Countries belong (Members/Observer States) or would like to belong (Applications) in parallel to Alliances of the USA Coalition alongside to Alliances of the Russia-China Coalition, such as Moldova that is an Official Candidate of the EU alongside a Member of the CIS.

C2.10. United Nations Security Council (UNSC) (M10)

The composition of the UNSC each year in terms of which countries in the UNSC belong to the USA Coalition versus which countries in the UNSC belong to the Russia-China Coalition determines the results of the Votes in the UNSC. Hence, this factor compares the USA Coalition versus the Russia-China Coalition among the members of the UNSC in 2024, both among the Permanent members of the UNSC and among the Non-Permanent Members of the UNSC (For more information about the problematic Veto Right in the UNSC, please see Global Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher, 25 February 2023, United Nations: Rubber Stamp? (https://www.rozen-bakher.com/forum/2023/02/25/un).   

 

C3. Methodology Notes

  • Australia in Generated Maps. Unfortunately, due to an unclear reason, the area of Australia is missing in the Maps Powered by Bing, which were Generated via the Excel of Microsoft Office’. Thereby, Australia should be part of the maps that appear in the following Sections: E12, E15, E34, and E39.9.

  • Holy See. The Holy See has the Status of UN Observer State, but it is not included in any Global Survival Rank due to giving respect to this highly important religious Catholic body because the Global Survival Rank deals with military issues and Political Fights. Although we can assume that the Vatican has the same rank as Italy in the 2024 Global Survival Rank, still, keep in mind that the Holy See has a different view from Italy in relation to various issues, such as the International Recognition of Countries.

  • Membership Status of Alliances. The Membership Status of Alliances that is presented in the column of the ‘Main Alliances’ was collected in January-February 2024, so it is possible that some Membership Status may change after that, especially in relation to Applicants and Dialogue Partners. For the latest Membership Status of each Alliance, please see Monitoring Alliances by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher (https://www.rozen-bakher.com/monitoring-alliances).  

  • Testing the Change in the Global Survival Rank From 2023 to 2024. The 2023 Global Survival Rank did not include the Colonies, so the Testing the Change in Global Survival Rank From 2023 to 2024 includes only countries that were included in the 2023 Global Survival Rank.  However, the 2024 GSR includes Colonies that some of them are bigger than the Smaller countries worldwide, which explains some of the negative changes from 2023 to 2024 among Small countries. Still, in some cases, the Negative change in the Global Survival Rank happened due to a reduction in some Survival Factors, such as the reduction in GDP and Technology level as in the case of Tuvalu. 

  • Dominican Republic - Area Size. Based on the Database of the World Bank, the Surface area (sq. km) of the Dominican Republic in 2020 was 48,670, while the Surface area (sq. km) of the Dominican Republic in 2021 was 146,839, which explained the Positive Change in the Global Survival Rank of the Dominican Republic from 2023 to 2024. 

  • Agricultural land - Definition. According to the Database of the World Bank, Agricultural Land refers to: “Arable land includes land defined by the FAO as land under temporary crops (double-cropped areas are counted once), temporary meadows for mowing or pasture, land under market or kitchen gardens, and land temporarily fallow. Land abandoned as a result of shifting cultivation is excluded. Land under permanent crops is land cultivated with crops that occupy the land for long periods and need not be replanted after each harvest, such as cocoa, coffee, and rubber. This category includes land under flowering shrubs, fruit trees, nut trees, and vines but excludes land under trees grown for wood or timber. Permanent pasture is land used for five or more years for forage, including natural and cultivated crops”.

  • Data Sources of Religion. There is a contradiction between various sources regarding the Share of Religions in Countries due to the politicisation of Religion Data, so an effort was made to Choose Reliable Sources that were used in the 2024 Global Survival Rank.

  • Missing Data - Subdivision of Christianity in Colonies. There is a Missing Data related to six Christian Colonies regarding their main subdivision of Christianity, so in the Column of ‘Religion Majority’, these Colonies appeared as Christianity, while in the Column of ‘Religion Majority and its Sub-Division’, these Colonies appeared as N/A.

  • Missing Data - Technological Level R4a. There is a Missing Data in relation to R4a of SAR-Hong Kong and SAR-Macau because this Data is likely part of the Data of China, which limited the ability to compare the WR of the Global Survival Rank in relation to Hong Kong and Macau, still, the other Survival Factors (R1, R2, R3, R5, R6, R7) exist for Hong Kong and Macau.  Besides, there is Missing Data in relation to R4a of Disputed Countries, because this Data is likely part of the Data of the Sovereign Country that claims Sovereignty for these territories, which limited the ability to compare the WR of Global Survival Rank in relation to Disputed Countries, still, the other Survival Factors (R1, R2, R3, R5, R6, R7) exist for the Disputed Countries.

Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher - A Researcher in International Relations with a Focus on Security, Political and Economic Risks for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and International Trade

https://www.rozen-bakher.com/
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Section B. Introduction: Why do we need a Global Survival Rank?, 2024 Global Survival Rank (GSR) by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
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Section D. Analysis and Concluding Risk Remarks, 2024 Global Survival Rank (GSR) by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher