Is NATO Forever? Trump’s Demand of 5% Defense Spending of GDP
https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks/14/04/2025/1500
Published Date: 14 April 2025
Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
Comments on Contemporary Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks-all
Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
Researcher in International Relations with a Focus on Security, Political and Economic Risks for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and International Trade
14 April 2025 at 15:11. Is NATO Members are going to spend on defence 5% of their GDP? Clearly NOT, so NATO not for long, or perhaps NATO not for long with the USA, which is going to make NATO an irrelevant defence alliance. Still, I need to explain it to those who are not familiar with Trump’s agenda, so let’s start.
Trump does not care about NATO nor about European defence, and in particular, Trump does not like the ‘War-Game’ between the EU and Russia. Importantly, Trump does not want to spend the USA’s money on anything, including on NATO and because of that he cancelled all the activities of USAID. Therefore, Trump prefers to see the USA without the ‘headache’ of NATO, unless the USA is going to benefit from that. Since 2006, NATO Members are obligated to spend 2% of GDP on defence, but over the years, most of the NATO members did not fulfil this obligation (see below), even after the start of the Ukraine war. Therefore, from the viewpoint of Trump, if NATO members are going to increase their defence spending to 5% of their GDP, then it is worth it for the USA to remain in NATO, because most of this money will go to the USA’s defence industry, which will increase the revenue and jobs among the USA’s defence firms. In other words, France and Germany also have defence industry, but the prominent one among NATO members is the USA’s defence industry, so if NATO members are going to increase their defence budget, then they will likely buy weapons from the USA more than from any other NATO members, which is very good for the Trump agenda. However, if NATO members are going to refuse the demand of spending 5% of GDP on defence, then for Trump, NATO is a ‘headache’, rather than an ‘income source’. Hence, my prediction is that eventually, Trump will decide to leave NATO (Formal withdrawal) or to ‘freeze’ the USA’s activity in NATO (Informal withdrawal) because it is unlikely that NATO members will agree or will be able to increase their defence spending to 5% of GDP, which will lead to a situation where NATO will become an irrelevant defence alliance, namely NATO not for Long.
U.S. to stay in NATO but expects 5% defense spending from allies - Rubio
Europe and Canada say they'll spend more on defense, but are cool on US demands
For more information about NATO:
2024 Global Survival Rank (GSR) by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher: Section E18. North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) https://www.rozen-bakher.com/gsr/2024/e/18
Section D. Analysis and Concluding Remarks, 2024 Global Survival Rank (GSR) by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher https://www.rozen-bakher.com/global-survival-rank-zrb/2024
Monitoring Alliances by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher, NATO - North Atlantic Treaty Organization https://www.rozen-bakher.com/alliances/nato
See also:
Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher, 25 February 2025, Do We Have Anymore USA Coalition? Trump as an Ally of Putin https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks/25/02/2025/1623
Monitoring Alliances by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher, Military Alliances Led by Russia and China https://www.rozen-bakher.com/alliances/rcm
Source of the Charts below: How much is each NATO country spending on its military in 2024?
