Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

Comments on Contemporary Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks-all

**Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher**

Researcher in International Relations and Foreign Policy with a Focus on International Security alongside Military, Political and Economic Risks for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and International Trade

CV

12 January 2026 at 05:38. I always thought that it is perfect that the home will be close to the workplace, like the home of Reza Pahlavi that is located only 15km from the headquarters of the CIA (see below). However, it seems that the CIA still lives in the 1970s because the CIA still calls to Reza Pahlavi, the ‘Crown Prince of Iran’, despite that the Iranian autocratic monarchy of the Shah was abolished in 1979. It is unclear whether the CIA is nostalgic for the Shah’s era because of the Shah’s good parties (see below), or because of the SAVAK, the secret police of the Shah (see below), that was formed with assistance from the CIA and symbolised more than anything the Dark Age in Iran during the Shah regime, or because of the Iranian Oil-Proved Reserves (ranked 4th in the world) (see below), like the 1953 Coup in Iran by the CIA and MI6 because Mosaddegh, the PM of Iran in those days, nationalised the Iranian oil industry that was previously controlled by the Western Oil Company (current BP), or even because of the current Iranian Gas-Proved Reserves (ranked 2nd in the world) (see below).

However, clearly, the CIA suffers from an illusion about the restoration of the Iranian Autocratic Monarchy through Reza Pahlavi, the Son of the late Shah of Iran, because, as I wrote in my Unpublished Research Paper PD5 from 2021: “the religious regime stability (over 40 years since the revolution in 1979) may also be explained by the bad memory of the previous absolute monarchy of the Shah (Kurzman, 2009; Takeya, 2021). The bad memory of the SAVAK-secret police of the Shah that tortured and executed many Shah opponents (Baraheni, 1976) may still impact the political arena in Iran. In other words, it can be argued that from the standpoint of the Iranian people, the Islamic religious regime that runs as a partial democracy is much better than what it was under the Shah regime.” In other words, the Bad Memory of SAVAK, the Iranian Security Service of the Shah, stabilized for long the regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran (see my previous comment from May 2022 below), because when most of the Iranian people see the former flag of Lion and Sun of the Iranian autocratic monarchy of the Shah, then it immediately reminds them of the SAVAK, the Iranian secret police that is considered one of the worst secret police that ever existed in the world due to its horrific methods.

Importantly, if we look at the recent riots in Iran that can even be considered as ‘organised military attacks’ orchestrated and even led on the ground by external forces, with the aim of killing Iranian police officers even via leanch (see below) alongside creating significant damage to public buildings by burning them (see below), including burning mosques (see below), then we need to look at these Riots/‘organised military attacks’ from the quantity perspective. More specifically, if we put aside the casualties and the damages caused by the attackers to compare the quantity between those who participated in the Riots/‘organised military attacks’ versus those who participated in the Pro-Iranian demonstrations to support the current Iranian regime, then we can see clearly that the Riots/‘organised military attacks’ are based on hundreds of Iranian people at each location (see below) that likely also included foreign people (see below the post of Mike Pompeo), while the Pro-Iranian demonstrations included tens of thousands of people at each location (see below). Moreover, if we compare the protests in Iran that led to the fall of the Shah (see below) versus the current Riots/‘organised military attacks’, then clearly the big difference is that the protests in Iran against the Shah were based on mass participation without any burning buildings, while the current Riots/‘organised military attacks’ in Iran are based on a small quantity of Internal-External Forces.

Hence, my prediction is that any attempt of the CIA to restore the Iranian monarchy via Reza Pahlavi will fall short because for most of the Iranian people, even for the Iranian non-religious ones, the current regime, the Islamic Republic of Iran is much better than getting back the Shah regime. The CIA should remember that the revolution against the Shah was run together by Iranian religious people alongside Iranian non-religious people, like the current massive Pro-Iranian demonstrations that denounce the riots, which are also based on Iranian religious people alongside Iranian non-religious people. Therefore, If the USA wants access to the Oil and Gas of Iran, then the USA should consider cooperation with the current Iranian regime instead of imposing sanctions on Iran, because any illusion about restoring the monarchy in Iran through Reza Pahlavi, especially through the USA’s military intervention in Iran, will complicate the USA and its ally, Israel, in a lose-lose war without success in restoring the Shah's regime through Reza Pahlavi.

Unpublished Research Paper PD5: Rozen-Bakher, Z. (2021). A Regime Type as a Location Factor of FDI: Democracy, Communism, Absolute Monarchy, Religious Regime, and Military Regime. Unpublished Research Paper, PD5. https://www.rozen-bakher.com/unpublished-research-papers/pd5
Rozen-Bakher, Z., The SAVAK Paradox: Has the Bad Memory of SAVAK, the Iranian Security Service of the Shah, Stabilized for Long the Regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran?, Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher, 28 May 2022, https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks/28/05/2022/1846

Reza Pahlavi

Reza Pahlavi lives in Potomac, 15 km from the headquarters of the CIA

According to PBS, “the CIA was providing a miniaturized television transmitter to Reza Pahlavi, son of the late Shah, for a clandestine broadcast into Iran”.

Decadence and Downfall In Iran: The Greatest Party In History

SAVAK

According to Time magazine on February 19, 1979, described SAVAK as having "long been Iran's most hated and feared institution" which had "tortured and murdered thousands of the Shah's opponents".[10] The Federation of American Scientists also found it guilty of "the torture and execution of thousands of political prisoners" and symbolising "the Shah's rule from 1963–79." The FAS list of SAVAK torture methods included "electric shock, whipping, beating, inserting broken glass and pouring boiling water into the rectum, tying weights to the testicles, and the extraction of teeth and nails" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAVAK

SAVAK: Fathered by the CIA https://youtu.be/qau-V9-0_vc?si=5EFDM-AfpTgf2Igf

Oil-Proved Reserves and Gas-Proved Reserves Worldwide in 2023

Section B2.7 Critical Survival Factors: Energy Security - Gas-Proved Reserves (R5) and Oil-Proved Reserves (R6), Section B. Introduction: Why Do We Need Global Survival Rank (GSR)?: Survival in Short Wars versus Long Wars, 2025 Global Survival Rank (GSR) by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher https://www.rozen-bakher.com/gsr/2025/b/introduction
Section D. Methodology, 2025 Global Survival Rank (GSR) by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher https://www.rozen-bakher.com/gsr/2025/d/methodology
- Oil-Proved Reserves: The 2025 Global Survival Rank (GSR) uses the indicator of the Oil-Proved Reserves in tonnes in 2023, based on the calculation of the Gas-Proved Reserves that were in 2020 minus the Gas Production that was during the years 2021-2023, as explained in full details in Methodology Note II in Section D6. The database was retrieved from the Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy on 24 April 2025.
- Gas-Proved Reserves: The 2025 Global Survival Rank (GSR) uses the indicator of the Gas-Proved Reserves in cubic meters in 2023, based on the calculation of the Gas-Proved Reserves that were in 2020 minus the Gas Production that was during the years 2021-2023, as explained in full details in Methodology Note II in Section D6. The database was retrieved from the Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy on 24 April 2025.

Using Firearm by Rioters against Iranian Police Officers and Iranian Soldiers

Doing Lynch by Rioters against Iranian Police Officers via Stones and knives

Mike Pompeo's Post on X about Foreign Agents that Participated in the Riots in Iran

The Riots/‘organised military attacks’ in Iran based on hundreds of Iranian people at Each Location

Massive Pro-Iranian Demonstration across Iran to support the Islamic Republic and Denounce the Riots

1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran

Iran 1979: Anatomy of a Revolution l Featured Documentary https://youtu.be/SJzuRf3Pyjk?si=nsGXlS2Hs-9otCok

The CIA’s Illusion about Restoring the Iranian Autocratic Monarchy through Reza Pahlavi, the Son of the late Shah of Iran

Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher