The Backfire on USA Coalition amid the Sanctions against Russia: Slowdown and Recession

Written By Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks/05/05/2024/0141

Published Date: 05 May 2024

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Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

Researcher in International Relations with a Focus on Security, Political and Economic Risks for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and International Trade

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05 May 2024 at 01:41. In general, Economic Slowdown is when the Economic Growth (GDP Growth) is reduced yet above the Zero, while Economic Recession is when the Economic Growth (GDP Growth) is Negative (below the Zero), yet keep in mind that some countries define Recession when a few consecutive negative quarters of GDP occur, as is the case in the UK and Japan.

In the countries that belong to the ‘USA Coalition’, namely the Unfriendly Countries of Russia that joined the USA in imposing Sanction against Russia, it is almost like a Taboo if someone dares to mention that the ‘Economic Problems’ in the Countries of the USA Coalition are due to the SHIFT IN TRADE namely, that countries that belong to the ‘Russia-China Coalition’ reduced the Buying (import) from countries that belong to the ‘USA Coalition’ over the last two years, while they increased the Buying (import) from countries that belong to the 'Russia-China Coalition’. I call this process SHIFT IN TRADE because it is a process when a country stops the import from a certain country and instead starts to import from another country. SHIFT IN TRADE all the time occurs due to ‘Cold’ or 'Warm’ in the International Relations between countries, BUT the Sanctions against Russia have led to a huge SHIFT IN TRADE, resulting in a reduction in the Import from countries that belong to the ‘USA Coalition’. However, the ‘Sanctions-War’ created the ‘Art of Bypassing Sanctions' in a way of ‘Informal Export/Import’ or even ‘Secret Export/Import’ to hide the Trade with countries that have Sanctions against them, so likely, the volume of the Export/Import is less from the real volume among countries that belong to the ‘Russia-China Coalition’, especially those that make ‘Informal/Secret Export/Import’ with countries that have sanctions against them. Hence, my prediction is that the SHIFT IN TRADE will lead in the mid-run to the situation that the economic activity will be reduced further among countries of the USA Coalition, while it will increase among countries of the ‘Russia-China Coalition’. Importantly, if we look at that from the ‘Cold War’ perspective, then the Architects of the ‘Sanctions-War’ against Russia via the Ukraine War had the illusion that the Sanctions against Russia would lead to the Meltdown of the Russian economy and, as a result, to the fall of Putin, while also leading to the return of the Hegemony of the USA Empire, but they were clearly wrong about it, and now these Architects should deal with how to avoid Economic Meltdown in their backyard. 

I wrote this on 16 April 2022: “My assessment is that the exports of the USA coalition will decrease progressively according to the replacement of exporters from the Russian coalition. The bad news for the West is that this process is not revertable because Russia will not forgive for trying to crash their economy via creating technical default.” Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher, 16 April 2022, Russian Counter-Sanctions: The Replacement of West Exporters with East Exporters https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks/16/04/2022/0833

Additional Relevant Research Paper and Previous Reports, Analysis and Comments about this topic in which I predicted this SHIFT IN TRADE:

For the Definition of the Coalitions, please see Section C2 - Coalitions (M9) in the 2024 Global Survival Rank by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher https://www.rozen-bakher.com/global-survival-rank-zrb/2024

Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher - A Researcher in International Relations with a Focus on Security, Political and Economic Risks for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and International Trade

https://www.rozen-bakher.com/
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