Israel-Hamas War

Written By Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks/13/12/2023/1835

Published Date: 13 December 2023

Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

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Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks-all

Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

Researcher in International Relations with a Focus on Security, Political and Economic Risks for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and International Trade

CV

13 December 2023 at 18:35. I can write many comments on Israel-Hamas War, such as why the Israeli Intelligence failed to predict the revenge attack of Hamas? Or if the Military Strategy of IDF regarding Gaza is the Smart one? Or if the Palestinians will give up on their fight for freedom? Or how long this war will drag on?

Because too many people suffer right now from this war on both sides, I decided to be nice this time and to await further with these questions, yet meanwhile, it is possible to get clues about these questions from my previous comments and posts about this topic (see below). However, keep in mind that it's important to widen the spectrum in order to get answers to these questions, namely to look at the geopolitics and not only at the Israel-Palestine conflict.  

 

21 November 2022 at 13:48. I was 10 years old in 1973 when the war sirens broke the silence of Yom Kippur. After I entered the shelter with my family, the radio started to publish the general mobilisation of the IDF. I still remember the countless ‘reserve codes’ that the radio published. The Yom Kippur War from the side of Israel was a surprise war because the intel chief of the IDF failed to predict the surprise attack, despite all the 'red flags'. The intel army chief has a critical role because it should evaluate the military threats in order to get the right decisions, such as if it needs a change in the military deployment or general mobilisation to prevent a surprise attack, or vice versa, if it does not need any move because a real threat does not exist, which allows saving costs of useless mobilisation.

If an Israeli politician argues that Iran is going to attack the World Cup, then likely I would not mention it because politicians say ridiculous things as part of populism policy. However, when the intel chief of IDF assessed a ridiculous risk that Iran may attack the World Cup, then it signals about a big problem, namely the lack of assessing the reality at the regional level, which can backfire in both directions, namely assessing a threat that does not exist or, vice versa, not understanding a real threat. I hope for Israel that surprise sirens will not break the silence one day, but under such illusional intelligence, my prediction is that the risk is high.

See also other previous relevant comments from my Risks Timeline BEFORE the Israel-Hamas War:

Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher - A Researcher in International Relations with a Focus on Security, Political and Economic Risks for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and International Trade

https://www.rozen-bakher.com/
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